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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (58626)	1/10/2005 2:14:54 AM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

EP, Although we live longer than the old K-waves, we are no longer on the gold standard, and the resultant spike in liquidity and derivatives has, in my opinion, created a set or circumstances that will facilitate a worse crash than would have been the case if AG had let the economy bottom in 2000. The lack of a clearing mechanism then allowed valuations to increase to the point that this multi-year bull is so long in the tooth that the resultant correction can only be long and painful and unlike any other we have seen. I like to be more positive except I see massive liquidity being pumped into the markets, literally forcing investors to devalue cash and seek returns in real estate and commodities, which is what we have seen. Since the liquidity is rising, and since I don't think they can keep pump-priming at this rate forever, I think that there will be significant failures in the financial system, occuring at the point where there are too many fires to put out. It may not happen for a long time, but I think it will happen soon. D