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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (22702)	1/10/2005 12:28:36 PM
From: bull_derrick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Kodiak, I read once that Argentina had a GDP the same size as Canada at WWI era. Fast forward about four or five decades of socialist rule and you can kind of see what mismanagement can do to an economy. In reverse, the newfound financial rules that India has embraces are liberating that economy into a vibrancy most wouldn't have thought possible ten years ago. Onto Russia, there's a lot of organized crime over there and that plus the breakup of Yukos has to give a foreign company pause about the viability of operating in that country. While the economy has strengthened with oil exports, their economy is essentially a one-trick pony. One commodity economies, plus graft and corruption, and you have a Venezuelan model going forward. The only difference is they have nukes. The Chinese detecting weakness on the part of the Russians may make for some interesting tensions, IMHO. China is increasingly wealthy and increasingly showing influence in places like Africa. There's historical conflict between the two dating back a couple hundred years and it might be plausible to see renewed tensions if oil prices weaken and China perceives the Russian economy is flat on its back, which it pretty much was when oil hit $12/BBl. As an investor, I don't believe I'd want my money tied up in Russian equities, fwiw. I believe there is a lot of downside potential there.