Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (24363)	1/10/2005 5:12:05 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

>>> I was surprised to see the expense ratio under 1.5%....<<< Especially since they are constantly rolling over commodity derivatives. But I guess if you do it 5 million $ at a time you get a pretty good commission rate. In any case, it sure beats trying to do the same thing on your own. I think Bill Gross is one of those few big operators (like Buffet, Templeton, and maybe--some day when he gets enough capital--Bill Fleckenstein) who feels a keen responsibility to do the best he can for his customers and who is well-informed and tells the truth.

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (24363)	1/10/2005 5:56:01 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

did they get rid of the load on that one?? finance.yahoo.com

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (24363)	1/10/2005 7:14:35 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 110194

another one to look at (and I am long from last spring) is Dreyfus Premier Natural Leaders Fund

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (24363)	1/11/2005 9:22:04 AM
From: redfrecknj	Respond to of 110194

Work by Bob Bronson (Bronson Capital Markets) and confirmed recently by Tim Wood indicate that the CRB has topped out: Bronson: In US dollar terms, the CRB index peaked in March-April of this year, after rising some 23% above its previous peak three and a half years earlier -- see the middle panel in the first chart below. However, in non-dollar terms, the index actually declined some 9% -- see upper panel -- reflecting the 25% decline in the US dollar index, dxy0, during the same period. As the CRB index declines back to its 2000 high, and the US dollar simultaneously declines to below 80 -- both which we fully expect over the the next few years -- the non-dollar CRB index will decline about one-third approaching its low at the end of 1998. And as the CRB index again return to the lows it made in 1986, 1992, 1999 and 2001 below 200, as we also expect later this decade, the non-dollar CRB index will make significant new lows declining roughly matching its decline from its 1985 high to its 1992 low. This would complete an ABC zigzag pattern -- see the third panel in the second chart below -- that our Growth Cycle template expects technically. Our Growth Cycle is explained in Exhibit C in SMECT, our business and stock market forecasting model: financialsense.com We believe all of this is consistent with two or three more recessions, depending on the severity of the one we expect next year, during this K-Cycle Winter, or what we fundamentally and technically quantify as a deflationary economic BAAC Supercycle Bear Market Period (see above link to our SMECT forecasting model). Tim Wood: financialsense.com