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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MoneyPenny who wrote (24392)	1/11/2005 10:29:47 AM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 110194

Sounds like the Dilbert site was working OK for you; it conked out later in the day. I like your all-acronym message. Reminds ME the old, old joke about the traveler who wired home after he lost all his underwear: SOS/BVDS/PDQ/RSVP. I have taken Bill Fleckenstein's latest siren wail seriously and swapped more assets into RYVNX yesterday. It is true that almost every single early-warning signal for an impending market crash is in place: all the measures of bullishness and complacency are as high as they have ever been; the fed signals an intention to raise rates again and again; the dollar is in a serious decline; we are stuck in an unresolvable military involv ement in Iraq; most of the US population is addicted to inefficient automobiles, houses larger than needed, and credit card debt. I was thinking the other night in terms of what I was calling the "Ten Percent Scenarios," any one of which could knock the props from under the stock markets: (1) Ten percent of investors cash out; (2) Investors in general decide to sell ten percent of their holdings; (3) Ten percent of mutual fund managers decide to raise ten percent more cash; (4)All mututal fund managers on average decide to raise their cash holding to 10%; (5) Foreigners decide to withdraw ten percent of their U. S. investments.