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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (24411)	1/11/2005 10:38:01 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

The pattern of this market is that institutions and many analysts haven't done their homework or think we are in permanent blissful nirvana, and the shorts have largely given up, so when the poor news starts to hit later, they will be reactive. So we may see choppy topping action for awhile depending on whether the Fed gets back into the printing press game (which I think they will). If they don't, the fall may happen quickly. But fundamentally I think you will see the effects showing on new housing soon, as in now. The evidence will be in the MBAA purchase index which is real time rather than old dated. Once the PI goes below 380-400, that may shift psychology first for the marginal speculative buyer idorfman.com who buys second and third McMansions and then rents them to "ner do wells" or bears like us (or some combination thereof) <g>.

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (24411)	1/12/2005 8:45:46 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Another drop in the Purchase Index to 393, first time below 400 in over a year. the high was 496 on 11-3. I'm also calling Dec. 8th (the peak of the money printing orgy) the peak in the housing market. PI was 491 for that week. WASHINGTON, D.C. (January 12, 2004)— The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 7. The Market Composite Index - a measure of mortgage loan application volume - was 587.8, a decrease of 3.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 605.7 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 41.6 percent compared with last week but was down 17.4 percent compared with the same week one year earlier. The MBA seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased by 5.8 percent to 393.1 from 417.3 the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Refinance Index increased by 1.1 percent to 1720.5 from 1701.3 one week earlier. Other seasonally adjusted index activity included the Conventional Index, which decreased 2.4 percent to 876.8 from 898.4 the previous week. The Government Index decreased 10.1 percent to 105.5 from 117.3 the previous week. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 49.0 percent of total applications from 48.0 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 32.7 percent from 32.6 percent of total applications. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 5.70 percent from 5.67 percent one week earlier, with points decreasing to 1.32 from 1.35 the previous week (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 5.17 percent from 5.12 percent one week earlier, with points increasing to 1.31 from 1.25 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The average contract interest rate for one-year ARMs decreased to 4.16 percent from 4.17 percent one week earlier, with points decreasing to 0.97 from 0.98 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.