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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (24442)	1/11/2005 6:57:48 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 110194

yes, but you are a gentleman and a scholar to remind me! Cheers! Here is to making some money in 2005 and living to tell about it!

To: ild who wrote (24442)	1/11/2005 11:04:39 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 110194

A fantastic read: what a writer Mamis is! wish I could afford as sub.

To: ild who wrote (24442)	1/12/2005 10:42:46 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Complacency about bonds By Mark Hulbert, CBS.MarketWatch.com ANNANDALE, Va. (CBS.MW) -- Here's a statistic that certainly makes you stop and think: The yield spread between low-risk Treasurys and junk bonds is now at a five-year low and close to an all-time low. cbs.marketwatch.com{CF65CA9B-BDFE-48A5-B65E-DDEEABEC09CA}&siteid=mktw&dist=nbc

To: ild who wrote (24442)	1/12/2005 11:17:56 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

Call buyers still complacent enough to rubs some coins together and buy at a decent clip this morning. Bad habits die hard, same thing happened in 2000, after the peak: iseoptions.com.

To: ild who wrote (24442)	1/12/2005 11:20:28 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Wed Jan 12 2005 10:54 trotsky (mugwump@Faber and the dollar) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved actually, his expectation isn't entirely unreasonable. after all, interest rate differentials have been trending in favor of the dollar for several months now. as long as the 80 level on the DXY holds, a retracement rally is actually quite likely. that said, i think many people make a mistake in underestimating the stickiness and inertia of currency trends. imo the other side of the coin is that if the 80 level breaks convincingly, there could be another big leg down on sentiment ( i.e., fear ) alone. this COULD happen, but it's actually the lower probability outcome. Sinclair is right when he says that the fundamentals demand a much lower dollar down the road - but that doesn't mean it'll go there all at once. there could be significant counter-trend moves along the way. interestingly, the contention that 'everybody's bearish on the dollar and thus one should take the contrarian stance of getting bullish' is not really supported by the facts. if the statement were true, the speculator net long positions in non-USD currencies would be far larger than they are. my feeling is actually that at the beginning of the year, the above 'contrarian' call had almost become the new consensus expectation. anyway, it's not necessary to make a 'call' right here. it's really quite simple - 80 holds, and we'll get a rally. 80 doesn't hold, and we'll get a new down leg. so why not wait until one or the other can be safely said to have occurred? Date: Wed Jan 12 2005 10:35 trotsky (BigBob) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "if your'e all in p.m.s" - i'm not. i trade other setors, and actually keep an eye on almost everything. i'm not sure what you mean by that liquidity comment. imo trading volume in pm stocks is almost as pathetic as the price action. a money losing enterprise like the bio-tech mini-cap STEM sometimes trades more shares in a day than the entire pm stocks universe. in any case, as long as the yield curve continues to flatten, no miracles should be expected. the sector is still a reasonably good stock picker's environment, i.e. one can probably make bets on specific promising projects and the like, but the time to throw darts is long behind us. regarding liquidity, note that e.g. the Rydex pm sector fund has a grand total of $151 m. in assets. that's not even worth mentioning in today's markets ( and yet, a 20% outflow from this fund, which frequently occurs, means at least a 10 - 15 point setback in the XAU ) . it's possible though that the sector will lead a future yield curve widening ( e.g. if incoming economic data are exceptionally weak from here on ) . possible, but not probable ( it usually lags ) . anyway, the price action does not lend itself to positive interpretations here - of course that could change as well, we'll see about that. until then, the 'onus of proof' that Hambone often cites is on the bulls. Date: Wed Jan 12 2005 10:11 trotsky (pm stocks) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved pathetic, again. of course, no surprise if you consider the flat yield curve - amazingly, the last time there has been pm stock rally that was really broad-based and indicative of bullish action was over a year ago. since then the vast majority of pm stocks has been in a grinding bear market. one wonders where and when it will end, and it seems to me this depends largely on what the monetary bureaucrats plan on doing. if they keep hiking ST rates in the face of declining long bond yields, it's going to be a long wait.