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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kenhott who wrote (15208)	1/11/2005 5:00:29 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 52153

CTIC is no slam dunk or a layup I absolutely agree with this. It is a high-risk play. I am very diversified across many different biotechs - so it is perhaps a 1% or 2% play for me. People sometimes laugh at me because I am so promiscuous in this respect, but it is fundamental to my whole theory of biotech investing - if the risks are non-correlated, then a portfolio of biotechs will perform well. In response to your question, at some point the FDA is going to start grumbling about them trying to unblind the trial early. It's one thing if an investigator makes a comment, it's quite another if they systematically try to uncover this information. In fact I think they made some reference to this relating to looking at hair-loss among patients who had died. Peter

To: kenhott who wrote (15208)	1/11/2005 6:23:53 PM
From: Sam Citron	Respond to of 52153

Why no more data of this type? How is this any different from the typical "Heads I win. Tails you lose" situation that seems to prevail in the entire drug industry, where studies that support their sponsors' interests are published quickly, while unfavorable results are published slowly or not at all? But your example suggests to me that a case can be made for misrepresentation (and possibly securities fraud) if a company chooses to make an affirmative disclosure of certain cherry picked data that is not representative of other negative results that the company may possess and decides to suppress. There have to be some checks and balances, which is why I'm not as opposed to class action attorneys as some others on this thread. Sam