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Biotech / Medical : Marshall Edwards -- MSHL -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tuck who wrote (1)	1/12/2005 12:54:09 PM
From: tuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26

This amended S-1, pertaining to warrants, contains the most recent picture of the company: sec.gov The warrants expire in two years, have a strike of $9.00 (MSHL went public at $7.50), and if you think MSHL has a big spread, check out MSHLW. Whoa, Nellie! Can you say "illiquid" again? I knew you could. Given that the warrants are priced at roughly half the share price, they're an interesting play, and I'm aware that Rick once made good use of them. But it would be good to know what the timelines are. The above document talks of having enough cash to last till September of this year, and of needing further cash to fund PIII trials. There may be some esoteric ways of mitigating the risk, given the warrants (no other options are available). I'll defer to Peter, but one idea would be to buy the warrants and short the common. Seems like a winner. One could lock in $3 per share in the event of a big upward move, with minimal downside unless nothing happened for two years. Actually if nothing happened in two years, you'd lose the investment in the warrants, but win more on the shorted common, since that scenario would basically mean phenoxodiol had failed. The stock would probably be worth less than $3. It would be nice if someone knew roughly when results were supposed to be in, but the financing of the company implies . . . pretty soon. Someone know? Cheers, Tuck