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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (24486)	1/12/2005 1:27:08 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

Date: Wed Jan 12 2005 11:40 trotsky (frustrated@options game) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved well, the options could explain some of the action in the big caps, but actually, the pm stocks that don't have options perform even worse, so it's not something i'd make too much of at this stage. Date: Wed Jan 12 2005 11:38 trotsky (mugwump@Faber) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved well, IF he's right about a coming dollar rally, it's not a big stretch then to also call for falling commodity prices. he certainly has a point about industrial commodities looking a bit stretched here. mid-point corrections in commodity bull markets can be quite trying affairs - i refer you to the requisite charts from the 1970's. still, he may be too early again with this call...we'll see. Date: Wed Jan 12 2005 11:29 trotsky (Hambone@alternatives) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved i would agree that RIGHT NOW the pickings are slim. but that wasn't true last year. nearly all my non-pm picks did better last year than the pm sector. and i'm talking about an eclectic range of investment avenues...everything from cargo airlines to a producer of holders for cell phones. oil&gas explorers, tanker shipping cos., chemicals producers, uranium beneficiation, you name it. they all did better. that said, i'm bearish on the broader market for '05/'06. on the face of it, there seems to be less risk in the pm sector now on account of it having already corrected quite a bit. but the recent action seems to indicate that the correction still has a ways to go, wouldn't you agree? and that's not a comforting thought for investors in the sector, since the relative illiquidity of most pm stocks results in big moves price wise, whether they go up or down. btw., the move in PoG on today's trade deficit news should probably be discounted mentally. market moves on news are never of any long term consequence. if they are counter trend, they're given back within days, if they're with the trend, well, then they merely confirm the trend ( which would have continued with or without the news anyhow ) . anyway, i'm keeping an open mind w.r.t. the pms. they've got to show me some convincing price action though.