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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (19970)	1/12/2005 4:16:20 PM
From: croesus1111	Respond to of 108672

Iso, I agree that the PM stock performance today is disappointing. That trade deficit might be good for a multi-day dollar decline. If that's the case and the gold stocks continue to lag, I would have to reconsider my long positions.

To: isopatch who wrote (19970)	1/12/2005 4:45:16 PM
From: barrcuda	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 108672

Boy, you took the words right out of my mouth. $60 bil trade gap, gold up $4, DOW up 60 and HUI down 60. I so confuse This is all so over my head that cash looks better and better these days. I'm just too stupid to play this market Dave

To: isopatch who wrote (19970)	1/13/2005 7:37:52 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 108672

hi Isopatch, 1. USD could have started a multi month rally Message 20933374 2. Crude is still on a downtrend looking towards the mid-high 30s (which should be a LT buy) 3. PPT was not doing a good job with the NASDAQ. Seems that they do have a limited budget. 4. I hear a lot about the 5th year of a decade being a bull year. To me this doesn't sound like a good tell. OTOH what is a better signal IMO is when January makes a lower low over December. A bad sign - see 2002. A very bad sign when the NASDAQ makes a low lower then December's low on the 3rd trading day of the new year. 5. LT interest rates have reversed their secular down trend in 2003. Looking at a 10 year chart of the TYX (LT yield) the pattern that emerges is a false break, and it looks complete. Trends in LT interest rates are decades long. If we're into a new up trend now it will have serious implications. Real estate market and savings rate of the public are the most direct responses, but there will be a sea change all sectors of the economy. The most helpful advise I can give about that is if you're planning on taking a mortgage make it fixed rate only! If you have a big floating rate mortgage with over 5 years to go - change it to fixed rate at the first possible exit point or if there is no such option replace it altogether with a new fixed rate mortgage (even for a shorter duration, as long as it's 10 years and over) ATG