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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: mishedlo who wrote (24533)1/13/2005 12:24:18 AM
From: Umunhum  Respond to of 110194
 
<You might have a hard time getting filled but ITM calls all the way out to 2008 seem rather inexpensive. the strike 34's 4 popints ITM are a mere 7.50>

In theory that's a great suggestion. Unfortunately I have already tried buying '08 Crude Oil Calls back in July and I would never get filled. At first I put a bid right at the ask and left it there for days and I never got filled. Then I started going up to 50 cents over and never got filled. Finally I just started buying the regular contracts ('08s and '09s) even then I would never get filled unless oil dropped a buck that day. I would get filled and immediately be $500 under water. After several times of this happening I just accepted it and bought 1 or 2 contracts whenever crude would tank. Unfortunately, Crude started rising and I only bought about half of the contracts I wanted.

I believe that Oil will be selling for at least double the current price of $38.09 for Dec '08 Oil but anything can happen between now and then I don't want to get into a margin situation.

'09, '10 contract do not have options yet but they would probably trade like the '08s.



To: mishedlo who wrote (24533)1/13/2005 11:27:02 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Respond to of 110194
 
mish, if you try trading the long-dated crude contracts, you will see they are incredibly illiquid. it can take days to get a fill if you don't want your head chopped off. so the idea of options on an illiquid underlying (and of course the options are MORE illiquid) is more of a theory than a reality.