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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (156155)	1/13/2005 10:39:33 AM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

It seems to have been won in the kurdish area and I do think the shiaa get the idea even if in an islamic framework. Too many folks on the left on this thread seem to be anti-shiaa positive outcome possibilities. No sure thing but i think they want is an inclusive islamic republic without the mullocracy because they realize that for iraq to survive they have to include the others. If the country splits up, then there may be some danger there of iranian model and iranian control perhaps like syria in lebanon. Theres a reason to offset iranian influence with US presence for awhile longer in the south which may be in both US and Iraqi shiaa interest. mike

To: carranza2 who wrote (156155)	1/13/2005 11:51:05 AM
From: epicure	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

"no matter what people tell you, the ME has precious little experience with democracy and even fewer democrats. " Who are these people who would have told anyone there were democrats in the ME? In the US we have a long tradition of rebels- and the whole ethos of our country was created by men who were steeped in the enlightenment. The ME has nothing analogous, has had no analogous period of enlightenment and personal revolution against religion (which began in great part, of course, with Martin Luther and his theses- and the later drive for personal connection to God, as opposed to an intermediated one.) I think one cannot underestimate the way the revolt against centralized religion, became a revolt against centralized authority in general, and gave rise to the democracies of the West. I see nothing analogous in the ME to give them any traction on this kind of revolutionary thinking. I guess some other basis for democracy might crop up- economics seems to be driving liberalization in China- but since the wealth of the ME tends to be highly centralized, as opposed to being entrepreneurial, I'm not sure that could be a driver either.