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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (24573)	1/13/2005 1:30:59 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

cover piece on FNM in latest Grant's.

To: ild who wrote (24573)	1/13/2005 3:39:56 PM
From: loantech	Respond to of 110194

ild thanks as always for your hard work retrieving these messages.

To: ild who wrote (24573)	1/13/2005 5:36:25 PM
From: gregor_us	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

Heinz Presses Forward With His Little Blind Spots. I'm beginning to wonder if Heinz is heavily long treasuries or some product on treasuries. He keeps repeating himself and keeps peppering his commentary with things like "The Japanese have not been active in the last year in the US treasury market(or something to theis effect) and everything's been fine..." and, he keeps asserting the foreign holdings on US treasuries are not an issue. if there's any market nowadays where there is a broad consensus, it's the bond market...practically everybody is bearish on it. it would be understandable if it had actually gone down, but it sits only a few points below new all time highs. one only needs to look at Japan and what the collapse of their real estate bubble ( which by the way was not as big as the US,UK and Australian ones are now ) wrought. it launched a 10-year mega bull market in JGBs. why should it be different in the US? Why should it be any different? Because the Japanese had savings they were able to transfer to their government bond market. Americans in the aggregate have ZERO savings to transfer to the US treasury market. That's part of the reason why we're sucking up 80% already of the world's savings (Yes, that's other people's savings--not American's) into that market. Here, Heinz more directly asserts domestic demand for US treasuries will overcome any foreign selling. Frankly, imo, this is getting to be an argumentum ad nauseum. ...but i tend to think that foreign selling will be outweighed by domestic demand in the bond market's case. As I asked several weeks ago, "with what money?" will Americans support their bond market? Americans do not have the capital now to transfer to the US treasury market. So...they're going to have it later, in the midst of a real estate and stock market crash? This is comical. Really. LP