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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (24576)	1/13/2005 2:01:13 PM
From: zebra4o1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

FNM will be the last thing to crack - not a leading indicator. This is a semi-governmental agency. No one will believe that it could possibly be in trouble until the mortgage/real estate industry is littered with bankruptcies. Anyway, that's the way I see it now. When I first started making some housing crash investments two years ago, I bought a lot of FRE puts - a big mistake. These GSEs are heavily armoured. There are lots of softer targets out there. If a crash is coming, I sure hope it comes before January 2006, when my worthless FRE puts expire.

To: ild who wrote (24576)	1/13/2005 2:20:18 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

i'm buying June myself. interesting that the puts are trading at a premium to the calls (does this reflect a dividend payout?). w/underlying at 70, Jun ATM call is 4.0/4.2, while put is 4.3/4.4