Barnett - On the tsunamis:
Best quote comes from Journal op-ed ("The Year of Living Diplomatically: America must seize the moment in Indonesia," by Greg Sheridan, 10 Jan, p. A12):
The defining moment came early in the crisis, when a weeping man in Aceh, Indonesia's isolated and most militantly Muslim province on the northern tip of Sumatra, sobbed to a CNN interviewer: "Where is America?" Ordinary people often understand underlying patterns of power better than most intellectuals. This grief-stricken Achenese was not accusing America but offering an object lesson in how the world, especially Asia, really works. For he did not ask, "Where is the U.N.?" Still less would it have occurred to him to cry: "Where is Saudi Arabia and the principle of international Islamic solidarity?"
I will confess, I don't typically give to disaster drives like this one. My wife and I send money every month to the region through a religious charity and I prefer the steady flow to adding to the deluge. What I know from working with charities on such disaster scenarios is that they are typically overwhelmed by the flow, and the thing they fear most is that donors will consider their task done for the month/year on that basis, starving other well-deserved targets while leading to a load of waste, fraud and abuse. That doesn't mean most charities won't do right by the event ("U.S. Charity Overwhelmed by Disaster Aid," by Stephanie Strom, NYT, 13 Jany 05, p. A13), but do yourself a favor and check back with this region in three years to see what actually got done. As victims of such disasters the world over can tell you ("For Honduras and Iran, World's Aid Evaporated: Unfinished Work—Long-Term Fears for Tsunami Zone," by Ginger Thompson and Nazila Fathi, NYT, 11 Jan 05, p. A1), what goes up must come down—even generosity triggered by disasters. There is a recovery trap that such regions often fall into, never quite getting back to what they once where. That is the real danger here for South and Southeast Asia and especially Indonesia.
But some hopeful signs. I love those articles about a rising role for the privately wealthy in India ("Private Citizens Outdo Officials in Aid Efforts," by Rama Lakshmi, WP, 1 Jan 05, p. A14), because I like the social strength and economic-connectivity-spilling-over-into-politics that it signifies. I also like the signs that the disaster has pushed private giving to new heights in both China and Japan ("Japan, China Enter New Era of Giving," by Ginny Parker and Leslie T. Chang, WSJ, 11 Jan 05, p. A19), because that likewise speaks to a new sense of individual responsibility in societies long defined by rural-dominated communal pasts.
Couple of articles bemoaning that China isn't doing more ("China Is Small Player in Tsunami Aid," by Martin Fackler and Charles Hultzer, WSJ, 10 Jan 05, p. A10; and "As Asians Offer Much Aid, Chinese Role Is Limited," by Anthony Faiola and Philip P. Pan, WP, 5 Jan 05, p. A10). China's given more than it ever has ($64m), but it sent only several dozen medical personnel while the "overstretched" U.S. military dispatched 13,000 troops, plus ships, helos, and a carrier for God's sake! Then there's everyone in Asia trying to outperform the other in money donated, with Japan easily topping them all at $500m. Still, Japan did as much in terms of personnel and India sent ships, helos and aircraft to Sri Lanka and the Maldives, making China's rising military power look AWOL.
The real sense of the disaster's potential to register as a System Perturbation begins to appear:
Indonesia's handling of relief efforts in Aceh ("Indonesia Order Foreign Troops Providing Aid to Leave by March 26," by Jane Perlez, NYT, 13 Jan 05, p. A12) suggests the weird trade-off faced by Indonesia's leadership, which has kept separatist rebel forces under wraps there successfully in recent years, despite the decades-long struggle. How. The military "has kept the province of Aceh virtually sealed to outsiders in that period." So the tsunami both disconnects and—for a brief moment—reconnects Aceh to the outside world for the first time in 30 years. But the danger seems apparent to Indonesia's political leadership, and so the enforced disconnectedness must be reestablished. This is why, in my mind, Indonesia remains more Gap than Core.
Similar fears abound in Sri Lanka ("In Sri Lanka, Aid To Tamils Deepens Political Tensions," by James Hookway and Jay Solomon, WSJ, 11 Jan 05, p. A1). The subtitle says it all: "Officials worry expats' efforts may spark rebels' resolve and test tenuous truce."
But here's the winner for now in the derby: "Trade Friction Looms as U.S. Weighs Export Relief for Asia," by Greg Hitt, Philip Shiskin and Rebecca Buckman, WSJ, 13 Jan 05, p. A1. Here the story is that while the Core's big economies are moving to forgive debts in the region to help the recovery, a new fight is brewing as these same states seek concessions on trade. This was long in the building, due to the end of the 1973 Multifiber Agreement that set market quotas for apparel imported from less-developed markets. The end of the quotas would seem to signal the rapid victory of China over other regional states, because China can do anything they can do cheaper. How that story and the tsunami relief story get mixed up bears watching.
Other usual story (now becoming old hat) on how India and China are "raising the stakes" for Western oil companies ("Asian Rivals Put Pressure on Western Energy Giants," by Andrew Browne et. al, WSJ, 10 Jan 05, p. A1). Great Dan Yergin quote: "Over the next 10 years, Chinese and Indian oil companies will emerge as major players in the global oil industry." So guess what? Their military interests will follow, something I've been preaching for a while.
Most interesting piece of the bunch was "The Post-Saddam Boom" op-ed in WSJ by Glenn Yago and Don McCarthy (13 Jan 05, p. A12), citing a big plus up in foreign direct investment into the region since the fall of Saddam. All due to rising oil prices? No. Spread is even, and not everyone has oil. Basically a rough doubling in absolute volume in a very short time space, and during a year when FDI wasn't exactly zooming around the planet and sure as hell needed a good reason to visit the Persian Gulf. More evidence of the Big Bang working? Time will tell.
Gotta go. Doing some weird local cable TV show in Redmond Washington (TVW, described as the local CSPAN) tonight live from my home. Yes, from my home. No cameras, just me on the phone. I sent them the GIFs I offered CSPAN for their show. It's live at 10pm EST, or 7pm PST. I think I'm being interviewed. In fact, I damn well better be, cause I ain't just doing some mini-brief for 30 minutes with still pictures I can't see. I have no idea why I agreed to this. And after a long day, I will be tempted to work a couple of beers in during the broadcast. Host is Stan Emert, a local businessman who heads community relations for Symetra Financial. Hmmm. |
