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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (24660)	1/14/2005 10:24:13 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 110194

US is not going to pull an Argentina--there's no need to with USD-denominated sovereign debt, since we can just print the money. it's much easier to devalue the currency as they've been doing.

To: mishedlo who wrote (24660)	1/14/2005 10:27:44 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 110194

Do you believe that Japan, the US, the EU, and the UK are all more or less bankrupt? they probably are, in the sense of their long-term welfare-state liabilities exceeding NPV of assets. but it's not entirely economical; it's partly political (allocation of resources and disbursement of benefits). and politics never looks at the longer picture. expect the industrialized countries to punt the ball for as long as possible. expect the herd of investors to go along with the ruse.

To: mishedlo who wrote (24660)	1/14/2005 10:34:59 AM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

that the debt gets wiped out or repriced or somehow or other obliterated just seems a given to me -- I mean, what's the alternative? -- USD falling enough in concert with a wonderful economic expansion so as to allow payback? the problem is not so much the debt, but what the debt has done to misalign the real capital structure world-wide -- across borders, across industries -- between private and public expenditures AG didn't see a bubble -- well, perhaps it is fair that he couldn't see the extent of the bubble -- I don't think we know how bad the credit bubble really is until we see the aftermath