Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (24688)	1/14/2005 2:36:12 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

speaking of housing: does anyone on this thread personally know of a single soul who has been long TOL or RYL LT? Just curious. TOL looks like 78 area would be a good place to intiate, after a fall and bounce on lower vol.

To: russwinter who wrote (24688)	1/14/2005 2:56:28 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

in the case of the US Treasury itself, this is illustrated in spades on page 37 of this bulletin: fms.treas.gov This just shows public debt, privately held, but we can that the US govt, has jammed more and more securitites into shorter maturities. In 2000 avg maturity was 6 yrs 2 months, and now it's 4 yrs 11 months. So as these short dated issues rollover, the cost of the debt just creeps up. In 2001, 66.6% of all treasuries were under 5 years, and now it's 72.5%. Part of the manipulation of the 10 year, has been to push supply in the short end as the yield curve was steep, so now as the curve flattens rapidly, the bill comes due for that. Hmmm Actually as the yield curve flattens that debt can be recycled into 10 yrs at little additional cost. Such a deal huh? A reason for someone to hold down the 10 yr? When does this stuff start coming due? (oops In edit I see you gave the average maturity)Of course they can just keep rolling it all into 5 year notes but they sure wont if the curve inverts. Mish