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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (21447)	1/15/2005 5:33:51 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 116555

Yes, the refi index already came down prior to last week. It was between 2149-2375 for the six weeks of 10-13 to 11-24, really a little boomlet when ARMS got back down to 3.85-3.90, which probably "saved" XMAS retailing. So the drop to 1701-1721 (1804: the last week of Dec) the first two weeks of Jan. is pretty steep, and may suggest there is a lot of sensitivity from ARMS rates which are now 4.17%. The purchase index only rolled over (to 417, and now 393) in just the last two weeks, and was a very high 460-490 throughout Nov-Dec. That's why I'm a little skeptical about housing slowing much then, but now?