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Strategies & Market Trends : Precious Metals mutual funds (gold, silver, PGMs) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan P who wrote (906)	1/17/2005 10:43:34 PM
From: Larry S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 972

Wade & Dan, et al, It appears to me Dan that you were right on again; though I don't see what can move the dollar up much from here and PMs do nor look like they are going to go down much either. But it clear that I was premature in suggesting that the correction is over. This was roundtable Part I in Barron's this past week and the discussion was interesting. I think it is reasonable to say that the predictions for the market were reserved. A couple are looking for a significant rise but most see the market ending the year near where it is. Zulauf, who I have always liked, sees a down turn during the year with the markets possibly getting back to where they are now by the end of the year. The only surprise to me was Faber, who is bearish on everything including commodities. The one area where there seemed to be agreement is that the dollar will fall further by the end of the year. But some seem to agree with your view, Dan, that we could have a move up near term. As I have said for several weeks, Lease rate patterns over haven't shown any short-term correlation with the POG and aren't telling me anything. I guess I just don't understand. The GMI/POG ratio for the past week: On 1/13, the Barron's GMI was 629.66, up from last week's 611.31. With the POG up ever so slightly at 422.500 (1/14), the ratio up at 1.49 The ratio continues in the middle range where it doesn't suggest a rise or drop in the POG. It is clear that there is very little speculation behind the price of stocks at this time. The ratio a year ago was 1.53, down considerable from where is was a week earlier reflecting the fact that stocks dropped a bit during the week and a lower level of optimism. Larry