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Strategies & Market Trends : YEEHAW CANDIDATES -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Galirayo who wrote (6507)	1/17/2005 11:17:29 AM
From: Gulo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23958

TA is still a bit mysterious to me. 10 black candles, 2 white candles - do we dance around the altar now? Are you sure you see two white candles? It's a bit smoky in this cave. <g> The FA on NEOL is not terribly compelling. Of course, one can't do normal valuation on NEOL because it has no sales. They have $4/share in cash and a couple of drug candidates. Their main candidate IL13-PE38QQR has some promise, but it has had promise for a few years already. It has orphan drug status in Europe and the U.S. and the Japanese rights were recently sold for a measly $2M with up to $12M in future payments. That doesn't give me much confidence that the company is worth much more than its cash. In fact, given the cash burn, I would value NEOL at less than $4. That doesn't mean that the stock price will go down to $4 anytime soon - especially if your candle-lit divination ritual suggests otherwise. I'm quite happy that I sold when I did, and I'm glad I didn't get back in (thanks in part to your comments after the white initial candle). My gut read of the chart is that you are right to suspect that NEOL might take off to the upside soon, but I'll pass. -g

To: Galirayo who wrote (6507)	2/3/2005 4:47:27 PM
From: Galirayo	Respond to of 23958

[NEOL] That is a Strange way to creep up. Sure beats the heck outa me. stockcharts.com[w,a]dacayiay[db][pb50!h.02,.20!f][vc60][iut!Uo14!Lq3,10]&pref=G Message 20956731 Ray

To: Galirayo who wrote (6507)	6/8/2005 6:54:32 PM
From: PuddleGlum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23958

FA on ARIA: 1. Lead product candidate AP23573 in Phase II trials for various difficult-to-treat cancers. Drug is on FDA fast track status. 2. Partnership with a leading stent manufacturer announced several months ago. Stents to be coated with AP23573. Potential for $39M in milestone payments. 3. Lawsuit against LLY expecting key decisions by end of year. A complete win is not necessary. 48 other companies also in violation of (very broad) NFkB patents. Licensing fees could be substantial, but I expect many appeals by many companies if ARIA wins on very many key points. 4. Company has available funds to take them into Q4 2006. Expect some sort of financing prior to that, possibly from an existing 9M share shelf. Milestone payments from the stent partnership, funds from a possible European partnership, or other partnership arrangements could provide additional capital to go beyond Q4-06, but nobody wants to give money to someone who needs it desperately, so funds must arrive well before Q4-06. 5. Fast track status was based on early P-II data, so we have lots of trials and risk ahead of us. 6. Company has been accused of hyping products/partnerships, etc., and this accusation has merit. Only within the last 6-12 months has the company begun delivering on its promises. 7. Short interest has been rising, and no sponsorship has appeared to frighten the shorts away. If the company has the huge potential that I see, then why don't any big players see it too? AP23573 could be an hallucinogen rather than a cancer treatment.