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Biotech / Medical : Elan Corporation, plc (ELN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Harold Engstrom who wrote (6260)	1/17/2005 8:58:07 PM
From: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10345

JMHO but: Tysabri (T) will be the number one MS treatment and in quick order, perhaps by EOY. Which drug will take the # 2 spot is more difficult. If Avonex (A) only competed against other interferons like Betaseron and Rebif then I would argue that Avonex will be number two. First, it is the only interferon with combo data and significantly A has lower/slower antibody build. However, Copaxone (C) is also in the mix. Avonex does have the advantage of a combo study with T which shows strong complimentary benefits. So it will be easier for doctors to justify scientifically leaving a patient on A and add T than it will be to leave them on C and add T. Many patients on A may be eager to dump the flu-like symptoms. But patients doing well on C may (not my wife) be reluctant to go on just T. It seems to me that TEVA needs to do a combo A + T study to slow the loss of market share. C will continue to look very good for patients that for whatever reason cannot take T. Bottom line is that C and A will fight for the #2 spot. A has the combo science but also the flu. ij