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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (95714)	1/18/2005 8:00:37 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793840

Splitsville for the Dems? Social Security reform will lead to party divisions, but not for the Republicans. WSJ.com OpinionJournal BY BRENDAN MINITER Tuesday, January 18, 2005 12:01 a.m. The spin in Washington is that President Bush's Social Security reforms will split the Republican Party in two. The thinking goes that the party's caucus is divided between those unwilling to touch the third rail of politics and willing reformers who are themselves divided over raising taxes and increasing the debt. But here's a question for anyone who propounds this theory: Who are these would-be splinter Republicans? A likely place to find such rebellious Republicans would be among those congressmen who saw all or part of their district endorse John Kerry for president. Connecticut's Bob Simmons is one such Republican. He's already come out against dramatic reform in the New York Times. But the problem is there aren't very many Simmonses out there. Mr. Kerry managed to do well mostly in the areas where Democrats already control the congressional seats. If Democrats are going to turn more than a handful of Republicans against the president's agenda, they have to find districts that contain one or more blue counties. But this is mostly a dry well too. New York's 23rd District runs along the Canadian border and contains a vast stretch of blue territory, but John H. McHugh won re-election there easily. He's also an open proponent of reform along the lines the president has outlined. Likewise, Alabama's Second and Third districts are home to some of the blue areas around Montgomery. But Reps. Terry Everett and Mike Rogers both easily won re-election and are therefore not likely to be spooked on this issue. Mr. Rogers even stood next to Mr. Bush recently as the president called for passing Social Security reform. So far this rebellion is coming up short on actual rebels. Indeed, the theory of a coming split in the party is likely more of a myth than a reality, a myth meant to scare President Bush out of pushing for serious reform. Meanwhile there are plenty of reasons to expect that the president will find ample support in Congress for reform and that the Republican Party will remain unified for at least two years (until 2008 presidential politics take center stage). First among them is that presidential leadership counts. Mr. Bush is clearly interested in Social Security reform, and Republicans are well aware that they have before them the best chance they've ever had to enact meaningful change. Sticking with the president on Social Security reform will enable individual congressmen to push their own ideas and see them signed into law. Secondly, the Republican caucus is mostly divided over how, not whether, to reform Social Security. South Carolina's Sen. Lindsey Graham can make headlines by calling for tax increases to pay for reform, but he isn't arguing the system is without major problems. Mr. Graham, a Senate deficit hawk, is likely to clash with House Republicans who are more concerned with creating personal retirement accounts. But there is plenty of middle ground. And serious reform does have a leader: President Bush. It's now becoming clear that he intends to use the supporters he recruited during the presidential campaign to press members of Congress. One of the benefits of not running an "anybody but" campaign, is that the president now has legions of individuals who worked for his campaign--not just to defeat the opposition but to see specific reforms enacted into law. With 1.4 million unpaid campaign volunteers and hundreds of thousands of district captains, contributors and other dedicated, politically active people, Mr. Bush now sits at the head of a political army with advance teams spread throughout the nation. They know exactly which congressmen to go after and how to put the screws to them. And like it or not, there are plenty of Democrats with red counties in their districts. One is Rick Boucher, who represents Virginia's Ninth District in the southwestern corner of the state. South Dakota's Stephanie Herseth and North Dakota's Earl Pomeroy have to go on winning statewide races in red states. Undoubtedly a few Republicans will break ranks. But if there is going to be a mass defection, look for it on the Democratic side of the aisle. Nothing moves politicians like pressure from their own constituents. After President Bush fires up his campaign machinery, look for more than a handful of Democrats to start looking for a compromise. Mr. Miniter is assistant editor of OpinionJournal.com. His column appears Tuesdays. Copyright © 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.