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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (156501)	1/18/2005 1:48:36 PM
From: Neocon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

US presence in Iraq did not prevent the condition of Fallujah, but insurgent elements and Al Qaeda had effective control of the city. No, it could not work both ways. Let's see how the election goes. That is the best gauge of the situation on the ground.

To: michael97123 who wrote (156501)	1/19/2005 2:37:49 AM
From: Nadine Carroll	Respond to of 281500

There are plenty of nationalists who have thrown in their lot with the terrorists because they hate our presence more than they value their own freedom or see us as an impediment to sunni power The last is the key - they are sunnis who want the old system back. Well, it ain't gonna happen, and there is no choice but to fight the worst of them until they get it. The government can offer quite a bit to the Sunni tribal leaders, but it won't be effective until the intimidation factor of the Baathists/AQ/criminals/Sunni "nationalists" is lessened. Don't get too despondent reading the MSM. Remember that if you class the developments in Iraq along a five point spectrum 1. Insurgency wins and Baathists retake Baghdad or chaos reigns or Iraq splits into three pieces. 2. Insurgency continues, gaining strength and territory 3. Insurgency continues in pockets of Sunni triangle, with bombs elsewhere, neither gaining nor losing 4. Insurgency slowly ebbs as new Iraqi government is created, Iraqi forces come on line, and all but the worst diehards sign onto the new Iraq. Car bombs and attacks continue but in lesser numbers. 5. Insurgency is crushed with almost no remnants The reporting of point 1 would be done with a kind of macabre glee, a chance to reprise Saigon 1975; the reporting of 5 would be done only with silence and attention turned away from Iraq; and the reporting of 2 through 4 would look exactly like todays news - "another bomb went off! xx dead!" Almost none of the reporting gives you any information that will give you the big picture. The best reporters occasionally write mood pieces that can give you a clue; however, for the most part you will get more information in the mil.int. blogs, soldiers' blogs and Iraqi blogs. I won't despair until I see them turn really grim, and they are still cautiously optimistic. Where in the MSM did you see the announcement that the intifada is for all intents and purposes over?