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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (24875)	1/18/2005 3:55:04 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

russ, furthermore, What if after the election in Iraq, Bush announces a pull out plan? He knows he is not going to have a parade through the streets of Iraq as the liberator, so why stay there? He should know that we are not going to spend a penny rebuilding Iraq, because any Americans there unprotected will be killed. So all of a sudden, we have a much smaller budget deficit resulting less pressure in rates. The Feds got to realize the high probability of recession if they raise rates. So they are trying to jawbone the rates up instead of actually raising it. These are not my opinions nor predictions, just wondering about the downside risk for shorting interest rate sensitive issues.

To: russwinter who wrote (24875)	1/18/2005 4:50:27 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

Chart from today's CI: idorfman.com

To: russwinter who wrote (24875)	1/18/2005 11:28:01 PM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 110194

<Then you have same on 5/1's which are now 40% of ARMs. Might mark 2009-2010 as the final foreclosure period of a deadly housing bear market. > You are probably right. Don't know if you guys mentioned this yet but there are tons of negative amortization loans out there with low starting pay rates as low as 1% interest only that are capped on by how much the payment can go up each year (usually a maximum 7.5%) even if the accrued interest rate skyrockets that can delay the cash flow problems for many years.