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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RealMuLan who wrote (21697)	1/18/2005 9:54:04 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

grain report CORN Hi, this is Tim Hannagan its Tuesday Jan. 18 and the markets are closed. We saw our weekly export inspection report come out at 10:00 am central time telling us how much o each grain was inspected for near term export and becomes a gauge of near term demand. Corn inspections were 27.7 million bushels up from 21.5 the week prior but under a year ago of 35.5 and four week average of 30.2. year to date inspections are 666 m.b. versus 710 a year ago. The slight improvement on the week come as the week prior was holiday shortened. It's a negative demand signal near term. Corn has issues. There's that China may begin to sell excess corn to surrounding Asian neighbors and customers of ours. Traders expecting our March planting intension report tot show growers intend to plant more corn and less beans to avoid the problems Asian rust disease could bring to bean fields and this all has the e trade looking for our ending stocks to rise to 2 b.b. from our recent estimate of 1.960 b.b. The best hope for corn to rally comes ion February when seasonal we turn up as the trade gets long ahead of the uncertainties spring plantings can bring. We can at least try and target a low for the month before the trade begins buying back shorts at months end. Were sitting right on first support of 1.96 next is 1.91. With next week being the last full week of Jan. I might assume 1.91 will not be broken and month end profit taking can accrue ahead of it. Months end profit taking could take us back to 2.07. BEANS Our weekly export inspection report came out at 26.6 m.b. versus 28.3 the week prior a year ago of 35.4 and our four week average of 30.5 year to date inspections are 586 m.b. versus 564 a year ago. Not a good demand signal for the week considering the low price close Friday. Demand in the big picture still remains good as China continues to buy U.S. beans while South American crops grow in the fields. Good weekend rains in Argentina and Brazils driest areas led to a lower open today. On Friday I noted that the weather web site WXRISK.COM called for this rain and for me to call for a lower open today. The rest of the week looks dry but not too terribly hot. Funds came in short about 57 thousand contracts after selling 8 thousand Friday on rumors of China canceling U.S. grains purchases. China traditionally over books cheap U.S. beans until the South American is done maturing then they cancelled shipments and buy the cheaper South American crop. With South America about 25% into key yield development it seems too early to switch buying ports by China. Its usually by Feb. 15 their purchased from them. Were 40 cents off last weeks high so we should start looking for a little short covering. March has good support at 5.10. Were not likely to take it out without some short covering. With Monday being a holiday tom marrow Wednesday becomes our turn around Tues. day. Shorts should take a lower opening and technicians should buy as close to 5010 as possible and get out on a close under. WHEAT Our weekly export inspection report came in at 14.8 unchanged on the week and four week average. A year ago we had 26.3 m.b. todate inspections are 679 versus 694 m.b. a year ago. Avery week demand signal. Additionally Egypt a major ULSL wheat buyer purchased 295 t.t. of wheat on the world market this weekend with the U.S getting only 60t.t. of the total. Considering we were 12 cents lower on the week at Fridays close one might assume we were better valued but apparently not, leaving us to continue our mission to find a price low enough to make our U.S. ports a primary port of origin for would wheat purchases. We hit our 2.95 support basis March. If this holds we could come back to resistance of 3.03. A close under 2.95 and 2.84 is next stop. Sell strength to resistance with stops over 3.03