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Biotech / Medical : Elan Corporation, plc (ELN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: fred hayes who wrote (6271)	1/19/2005 6:43:31 AM
From: Robohogs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10345

If you are correct, that would imply $2.5 B of revenue to ELN, $1.9-2 billion of margin, and because of ELN's negligible tax rate (something analysts never give full credit to but which makes ELN's half more valuable than BIIB's - thank you Ireland), probably would be worth $1.7 billion of net. If we use $3 B, the numbers become $1.5B, $1.1B of margin (lower to smaller size), and $1 B of net. Of course the base company loses several hundred millions of dollars a year currently, but with Prialt and nano, maybe the rest can break even. This stock would appear to be cheap by half. Jon

To: fred hayes who wrote (6271)	1/19/2005 8:22:05 AM
From: Harold Engstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10345

Fred - are you estimating Tysabri for MS only, or including RA and Crohn's Disease, too? It will be interesting to see what starts trickling out of nanotech pipeline, too. Recently the CEO cited 250,000 as potential patient market for Prialt. That is a big number. A couple of years ago $40K/year was bandied about as possible price. The 2 numbers together would have enormous impact - as would much smaller numbers. Does anyone have any thoughts about market and pricing? Partners is recruiting AAB-001 trial participants here in Boston where the criteria is mild-to-moderate Alzheimers and 2-3 months of treatment with Aricept or other treatments. H