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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (21737)	1/19/2005 10:56:32 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Bernanke: Inflation risks not greater than 6 months ago Wednesday, January 19, 2005 3:14:09 PM afxpress.com NEW YORK (AFX) -- Inflation risks in the U.S. economy remain well under control and haven't risen in the past six months, said Federal Reserve board governor Ben Bernanke. "I don't think inflation risks are greater today than they were six months ago," Bernanke told reporters after a speech Wednesday. Economic growth in the fourth quarter was not as robust as had been expected, he said, in large part because of the worsening current account deficit. This year, the economy should grow around a 3.5 percent annual rate, although there are risks from weak global demand and oil prices, he said

To: Tommaso who wrote (21737)	1/19/2005 11:02:01 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Fed´s Bernanke see productivity staying at high level - Wednesday, January 19, 2005 2:14:39 PM afxpress.com Fed's Bernanke see productivity staying at high level - UPDATE 1 WASHINGTON (AFX) -- Don't look now, but talk of a "new economy" could be making a comeback Although speculation heard several years ago about a new U.S. economy taking shape was subsequently tainted by the decline in stock values of high-tech companies, there's an emerging consensus that productivity growth could remain at its current elevated level, Federal Reserve Board governor Ben Bernanke said Wednesday The outlook for trend productivity growth -- at a relatively optimistic annual rate between 2.0 and 2.5 percent -- "probably represents a good baseline assumption," Bernanke said in a speech prepared for delivery to the Council on Foreign Relations "I think productivity optimists have a good case," he said Productivity -- the quantity of output that can be produced by a fixed combination of capital and labor -- is important because, in the long run, its growth is the principle source of improvements in living standards It's also crucial because inflation hawks at the Fed have argued that a slowdown in productivity growth may lead to higher inflation In his address, Bernanke said that cyclical factors are bringing productivity growth down from elevated levels generated at the end of the recession. These distortions are likely to be smoothed out in the second half of the year, with productivity approaching its trend rate, he added Bernanke disputed some economists' suggestions that inflation would rise as productivity slowed because unit labor costs would increase, instead saying the effect of slowing productivity on inflation is "ambiguous." "The effect of higher unit labor costs may be offset if the decline in consumption and investment spending induced by the productivity slowdown is particularly sharp," he said A sudden slowdown in productivity would not lead to a knee-jerk tightening of monetary policy. He said the central bank would have to determine the response of consumer spending to productivity developments If spending slowed with productivity, this might reduce economic activity and that in turn, might mean easier monetary policy is called for, Bernanke said "My best guess is ... that future responses of consumption and investment spending to changes in the pace of productivity growth are likely to be less powerful than those in the late 1990s," Bernanke said. "In this scenario, the appropriate monetary policy response would be toward less accommodation," Bernanke said On the other hand, any acceleration in productivity would allow less-restrictive policies, he said

To: Tommaso who wrote (21737)	1/19/2005 11:06:30 AM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Update on Sportingbet: a much more recent The Wall Street Transcript interview with the CEO: twst.com

To: Tommaso who wrote (21737)	1/19/2005 11:11:41 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

U.S. jobless claims fall 48,000 to 319,000 Wednesday, January 19, 2005 2:21:17 PM afxpress.com WASHINGTON (AFX) - First-time claims for state unemployment benefits plunged by 48,000 to 319,000 last week, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. Seasonally adjusted claims had risen in the previous two weeks. Seasonal adjustment problems plague the weekly data around holidays, when thousands of workers are hired for temporary jobs and then let go. The timing of the hiring and firing can warp the weekly data. The four-week average of initial claims, which smoothes out the data to remove weekly distortions, fell by 3,000 to 341,000. It was the largest decline in initial claims in more than three years and the lowest level in five weeks Meanwhile, the number of laid-off workers receiving unemployment benefits rose by 47,000 to 2.69 million. The four-week average of continuing claims fell by 8,000 to 2.74 million. The insured unemployment rate remained at 2.1 percent. Economists have said initial claims in the neighborhood of 330,000 to 350,000 are consistent with monthly job gains of about 150,000 to 250,000. The economy needs to add about 150,000 jobs a month to absorb new entrants into the labor force The claims data were released a day early due to security in Washington for Thursday's inauguration of President Bush. In a separate report, the Labor Department said the consumer price index fell 0.1 percent in December while core prices rose a moderate 0.2 percent. Also, the Commerce Department said housing starts jumped by 10.9 percent to a 2 million annualized rate in December.

To: Tommaso who wrote (21737)	1/19/2005 11:15:07 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

U.S. housing starts up 10.9% in December - Wednesday, January 19, 2005 2:55:51 PM afxpress.com Housing starts end 2004 on high note Sharp December increase follows November's plunge WASHINGTON (AFX) -- The nation's housing starts rebounded in December, rising at the fastest monthly rate in more than seven years after they declined sharply in the prior month, the Commerce Department said Wednesday Total housing starts rose 10.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2 million units in December Economists polled by CBS MarketWatch had forecast starts would climb to 1.9 million for the month. November's starts were revised to 1.81 million, up from the initial estimate of 1.77 million Building permits, considered a forward-looking indicator for the home-construction market, fell 0.3 percent in December to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 2.02 million units Still, economists warn that month-to-month swings in the starts and permits data may not be meaningful. It can take up to five months for a new trend in housing starts to be established In the past five months, starts have averaged an annual rate of 1.96 million per month, unchanged from the comparable period through November. Over the past year, total housing starts have fallen 3 percent Housing starts rose in every region of the country and in every major subcategory. "Going forward, housing starts data could be temporarily depressed due to the heavy rain and snow in the West and Midwest in January," said economist Omair Sharif of RBS Greenwich Capital Markets, adding that low mortgage rates and "healthy builders' backlogs are likely to keep starts well-supported in the coming months." Single-family starts rose 13.1 percent to a 1.68 million unit annual rate in December, the highest level since August and the largest monthly gain since September 2002 In the Midwest, starts rose 18.8 percent to 379,000 units, the fastest monthly increase seen since March 2003 Starts in the Northeast rose 5.7 percent to 168,000 units, while starts in the West rose 7.9 percent, reaching 516,000 units And in the South, the country's largest region, starts rose 10.6 percent to 941,000 units, marking the sharpest monthly increase since November 2002 In a separate report Wednesday, the Labor Department said U.S. consumer prices fell 0.1 percent in December, led by weaker prices for gasoline and heating oil And the Labor Department separately said initial jobless claims plunged by 48,000 to 319,000 in the latest week.