Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (20191)	1/19/2005 3:45:54 PM
From: croesus1111	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 108742

Sold rest of my NWAU yesterday at $0.79 after entry about a week ago at 0.71. Market on FXEN collapsing. Sold my overweighted position at $13.40 after entry 53 days ago at $10.12. Added RANGY at 1.81. Took a half position in TGA at $5.75. Iso, do you still like EGY? How about CNR at this price? I want to add more energy after my FXEN sale.

To: isopatch who wrote (20191)	1/21/2005 8:52:40 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 108742

Iso re: sentiment & bottoms.............................. I've made more money trading off of sentiment - than on trading the fundamentals, or the charts. Get a conformation technically that you like & given the still intact underlying LT fundamentals - seems reasonable & prudent to start doing some buying. I'm only nibbling with pretty widely gapped buy targets... my next entry is planned around that HUI 185ish area if seen & I wouldn't be overly surprised to see us get close. But, I simply have not & am not...watching the tape, or the market sentiment closely enough to make any major bets. I made a lot of money earlier in the cycle off of the initial cycle blow off's like we had in say July-ish 2002 & that was a "sentiment" trade all the way. So were some of the last energy cycle plays we had over on the old SI SD threads in both the OSX & XNG. I have not been following the market on a trading basis over the last 12-18 months all that closely. But, for those who have been... that Blow off back in May 2004 - would be a good yardstick to guage sentiment found then vs. what you see here now... That blow off blew thru all the technical supports and one would have to have been, pretty solid in one's convictions of the longterm underlying fundamentals. In pullbacks like this, it's most difficult to be patient and let the stocks "come to you"...and since I'm not following the sector daily, sometimes not even weekly - I am no barometer of anything here. I've nibbled with a weighting toward the So African's (a bit speculative) because many of them have decent upside from these levels even at $385ish POG...."when, not if" South Africa begins to change it's Monetary Policy and allows the Rand to weaken. Some weakening of the Rand (= upside leveage to the S'African Golds)has & will come merely from Currency Traders unwinding their Rand trades as we've already begun to see. I'm also slowly building a longerterm position in Uranium & would like to get some cheaper longterm re-entries in Coal, O&G etc. It's just that nothing looks cheap here to me... and it may never again over the next few years - given this Commodity Cycle. I'll have to try to buy significant pullbacks & hopefully this one is bottoming... hoping to add back a few old fav' majors & a couple of juniors here. PS: the UK announced the worst holidiay retail numbers in 20-ish years ! They have the same Housing Boom/Bubble - high debt that the US Consumer has. ...makes you wonder if the UK's is an indicator of what's coming here ? Citicorp's CFO was on CNBC yesterday & stated a very interesting fact... that their "credit quality" was the best it's been in 10+ years... Surprisingly, Consumer credit is very good...but, where I think the "bombs" lie - are in Subprime Mortgages & Fannie Mae's huge, almost unbelieveable foreclosure & dilinquency rates in it's first time Home Buyers & Sub Prime-esque forrays... I still think there are some Huge Cockroaches in Fannie's closet....smell a cover up in hoping to avoid a LTCM type of meltdown. FWIW: Out in the small business world...on Main St USA in "flyover" country...the consumer is still pretty solid...but what I see as the headline story for 2005 is - INFLATION. As Warren Buffet said just days ago....he's seeing tremendous cost pressures across all business lines and I think there is soon going to be tremendous Wage Pressure... and those costs (materials & labor) are finally going to start being passed onto the consumer... as they have to be. For the last couple of years the economy would not support it... and companies were afraid of losing market share...they held the line as long as they could & now that's ending.... SIGNIFICANT price & wage inflation is coming folks... bank on it. INFLATION imho, is going to step to the forefront as the primary driver for POG in 2005 and that's just more pressure for the USD. It may trade from .80 to .86...but, when she breaks .80 - watch the major Hedge Funds & Currency Players pile on like a pack of wild dogs. Going to be real interesting to see how & if the USD's descent can be managed & controlled. Again fwiw; I'm 85% cash...7.5% Short the broad market & 7.5% long Gold/PM's. ...simply finding it hard to pull the trigger....as I simply do not as yet; have the pulse of the sector to call any bottoms...and nothing (other than SA'fn Golds) really looks cheap. What I'd like to see, is some news catalyst triggering a nice USD Rally & seeing a 1-day Blow Off in POG and a HIGH Volume meltdown in the Goldstock's. Now THAT - I'd like to step into (vbg)... a nice one day 7-8% blow off / final shakeout in the HUI. good luck all