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To: energyplay who wrote (59143)	1/19/2005 8:20:33 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

<<nuke plants - does Siemens get a shot ?>> ... I believe: (a) France generates wopping 70-80% of electricity with nukes, vast majority by Areva, (b) Areva has JV with Siemens for nuke this and atom that, and so Siemens clan is already in Areva tribe, (c) Because of France's nuke dependency, Areva is the ONLY end-to-end (front-end mining/enrichment/construction, operation/logistics, and back-end fuel reprocessing/plant refurbishment) global player. They own and run the second largest uranium mine after Cameco, before ERA, (d) Buying from them beats Russian tech/safety record, and side-steps American political strings and bleeding-heart causes of every kind, (e) Besides, Sino-France relationship is tight (weapons transfers just around the geo-political corner), and so ... (f) But you are right, the plants will be multi-sourced, because depending on one design is never a good idea for anything that is critical, and so Westinghouse will get some orders, but only if the administration behaves, else Canada and Russia will get more orders, but then ... (g) The Russians will be kept happy with crude/gas purchases and military playthings orders, (h) Canada uses a different technology from the rest of the pact, and so will surely get some orders, and (g) I doubt the Japanese will get any orders, as they already have a trade surplus with China, and besides, they are Japanese After all the fuss, China will have imported enough reactors to increase % electricity generation by nuke from 1.Odd to 3DotOdd percent, and learn the ways and means, and start building more of own, and no surprises, what China builds, China will export. Areva is 95% owned by the French government, has a thin float, and will likely be in line for greater privatization. Chugs, Jay