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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (21850)	1/20/2005 4:49:11 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

you think housing can fall 40% and we wont have deflation?

To: Tommaso who wrote (21850)	1/21/2005 1:30:27 AM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 116555

Tommasso great post. I use the term stagflationary rolling depression with pockets of strength in some industries and geographic areas to offset 1930's style conditions in others. Maybe someday that term will catch on. <I doubt that there will be a general deflation such as occurred periodically between about 1820 and 1935 in the United States. I think that there could be drastic deflation of stock prices and real estate prices (especially in some areas) in the United States. By "drastic" I mean 40% to 60%) and that this could lead to numerous personal bankruptcies that would seriously damage the markets for many new consumer goods, especially automobiles. I think there will be a general lowering of the standard of living in the United States, with many large houses standing empty and many unfilled swimming pools and undriven SUVs>