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Banks (114 stocks)
BKX Amex Banking Index and RKH Regional Bank Holders
_ percent stocks over MA Trend Price Phase
_ market BKX 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d Score Phase Change
_---------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- ------
_Jan 20 100 26 9 12 74 62 -0.55
_Jan 19 101 25 10 11 75 -40 -0.45 DOWN
_Jan 18 102 44 13 14 83 -69 -0.37 UP
_Jan 14 100 9 4 8 77 -98 -0.43
_Jan 13 100 4 4 10 76 -96 -0.20
_Jan 12 101 4 5 13 82 -94 0.11
_Jan 11 102 4 5 12 83 -94 0.32
_Jan 10 102 4 6 19 85 -96 0.49
_Jan 7 102 5 8 22 82 -96 0.62
_Jan 6 103 8 15 30 89 -96 0.80
_Jan 5 102 5 14 30 88 -75 0.92
_Jan 4 102 11 25 39 92 -43 1.14
_Jan 3 103 26 46 60 93 60 1.36

Oil & Gas Drillers, Field Services, and Equipment (55 stocks)
OSX Amex Oil Services Index and OIH Oil Services Holders
_ percent stocks over MA Trend Price Phase
_ market OSX 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d Score Phase Change
_---------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- ------
_Jan 20 126 85 67 62 84 98 1.55
_Jan 19 126 93 76 71 84 99 1.38
_Jan 18 126 95 76 71 87 100 1.04
_Jan 14 125 91 69 69 87 91 0.64
_Jan 13 124 82 58 60 87 58 0.20
_Jan 12 122 71 38 53 85 26 -0.23 UP
_Jan 11 119 20 16 35 84 -36 -0.48
_Jan 10 119 16 18 36 84 -38 -0.39
_Jan 7 118 4 13 33 76 -57 -0.27
_Jan 6 120 9 24 44 84 -78 0.05
_Jan 5 118 4 15 33 82 -89 0.17
_Jan 4 119 5 20 36 85 -56 0.63
_Jan 3 119 7 22 47 87 52 1.11

Retailers (227 stocks)
RLX Amex Retailing Index and RTH Retailers Holders
_ percent stocks over MA Trend Price Phase
_ market RLX 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d Score Phase Change
_---------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- ------
_Jan 20 433 39 32 41 69 98 -0.54
_Jan 19 448 58 41 48 70 79 -0.06 DOWN
_Jan 18 453 74 52 52 74 49 -0.01
_Jan 14 449 51 39 45 70 37 -0.16 UP
_Jan 13 444 32 30 39 67 -47 -0.17
_Jan 12 449 34 35 45 69 -68 0.00
_Jan 11 444 28 29 46 69 -97 0.03
_Jan 10 447 28 35 52 70 -94 0.24
_Jan 7 443 22 28 47 68 -61 0.41
_Jan 6 443 26 38 54 69 56 0.76
_Jan 5 451 18 32 54 72 87 1.21
_Jan 4 453 23 40 65 73 87 1.46
_Jan 3 460 48 66 75 76 90 1.72 DOWN

Drugs (86 stocks)
DRG Philadelphia Pharma Index and PPH Pharmaceutical Holders
_ percent stocks over MA Trend Price Phase
_ market DRG 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d Score Phase Change
_---------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- ------
_Jan 20 304 28 19 37 38 -86 -0.36
_Jan 19 305 35 26 38 40 -96 -0.16
_Jan 18 308 56 30 49 42 -76 0.02
_Jan 14 307 31 20 44 37 -44 0.11
_Jan 13 306 19 19 45 36 52 0.31
_Jan 12 311 28 23 49 36 80 0.59
_Jan 11 311 14 22 50 37 84 0.65
_Jan 10 313 30 38 55 40 70 0.77
_Jan 7 311 21 29 52 42 43 0.78
_Jan 6 310 29 33 57 45 28 0.90
_Jan 5 309 19 30 56 42 44 1.07
_Jan 4 311 20 34 57 47 76 1.34
_Jan 3 314 36 51 68 52 96 1.55 DOWN

link to December data
Message 20905168

9-month cycle

Schedule: 11-, 22-, and 44-week cycles lows starting from Sep 21, 2001

_ cycle tendencies
_ 11-week 22-week 44-week SPX change high low range
Oct 10, 02 start start start 769 none
Nov 5 green green green 915 +146 924 +155 N.A. N.A.
Dec 2 yellow green green 934 + 19 954 + 39 872 - 43 81
Dec 26 red yellow yellow 890 - 44 934 + 0 880 - 54 54
Jan 21, 03 green yellow yellow 887 - 3 935 + 45 869 - 21 66
Feb 18 yellow red red 851 - 36 890 + 3 806 - 81 84
Mar 12 red red red 804 - 47 852 + 1 789 - 62 63
Apr 7 green green green 880 + 76 905 +101 804 - 0 101
May 2 yellow green green 930 + 50 930 + 50 863 - 17 67
May 28 red yellow yellow 953 + 23 959 + 29 912 - 18 47
Jun 23 green yellow yellow 982 + 29 1015 + 62 946 - 7 69
Jul 18 yellow red red 993 + 11 1015 + 33 962 - 20 53
Aug 6 red red red 967 - 26 1001 + 8 961 - 32 40
Sep 2 green green green 1022 + 55 1022 + 55 964 - 3 58
Sep 29 yellow green green 1006 - 16 1040 + 18 995 - 27 45
Oct 22 red yellow green 1030 + 24 1054 + 48 990 - 16 64
Nov 17 green yellow yellow 1043 + 13 1064 + 34 1018 - 12 46
Dec 15 yellow red yellow 1068 + 25 1083 + 40 1031 - 12 52
Jan 7, 04 red red yellow 1126 + 58 1126 + 58 1068 - 0 58
Feb 2 green green red 1135 + 9 1155 + 29 1115 - 11 40
Feb 27 yellow green red 1145 + 10 1159 + 24 1124 - 11 35
Mar 24 red yellow red 1091 - 54 1163 + 18 1087 - 58 76
Apr 14 green yellow green 1128 + 37 1150 + 59 1091 - 0 59
May 5 yellow red green 1121 - 7 1147 + 19 1107 - 21 40
May 25 red red green 1113 - 8 1121 + 0 1076 - 45 45
Jun 18 green green yellow 1135 + 22 1142 + 29 1110 - 3 32
Jul 15 yellow green yellow 1107 - 28 1146 + 11 1106 - 29 40
Aug 13 red yellow yellow 1065 - 4 1116 + 9 1061 - 40 49
Sep 7 green yellow red 1121 + 56 1124 + 59 1065 - 0 59
Sep 29 yellow red red 1115 - 6 1140 + 22 1101 - 17 39
Oct 22 red red red 1096 - 38 1142 + 8 1094 - 40 48
Nov 18 green green green 1183 + 87 1188 + 92 1090 - 6 98
Dec 14 yellow green green 1203 + 20 1205 + 22 1168 - 15 37
Jan 7, 05 red yellow green 1186 - 17 1218 + 15 1182 - 21 36
Feb 3 green yellow yellow 1168 - 18 1196 + 10 1168 - 18 28
Mar 1 yellow red yellow
Mar 25 red red yellow

22-week cycle

Sep 17-21, 01 base low 944 next high 1173 on Dec 06 (week 11)
Dec 03-07, 01 11 weeks high 1173 next high 1177 on Jan 07 (week 4)
Feb 18-22, 02 22 weeks trough low 1074 next high 1173 on Mar 11 (week 3)
May 06-10, 02 11 weeks low 1049 next high 1106 on May 17 (week 1)
Jul 22-26, 02 22 weeks trough low 775 next high 965 on Aug 22 (week 4)
Oct 07-11, 02 55 weeks trough low 768 next high 954 on Dec 02 (week 7)
Dec 23-27, 02 11 weeks low 873 next high 935 on Jan 13 (week 2)
Mar 10-14, 03 22 weeks trough low 789 next high 965 on May 30 (week 11)
May 19-23, 03 10 weeks high 944 next high 1015 on Jul 14 (week 7)
Aug 4- 8, 03 21 weeks trough flat 960 next high 1048 on Oct 21 (week 11)
Oct 20-24, 03 11 weeks high 1048 next high 1132 on Jan 9 (week 11)
Jan 5- 9, 04 22 weeks high 1132 next high 1163 on Mar 5 (week 8)
Mar 22-26, 04 54 weeks trough low 1087 next high 1150 on Apr 5 (week 2)
May 24-28, 04 9 weeks flat 1090 next high 1146 on Jun 25 (week 4)
Aug 9-13, 04 20 weeks trough low 1061 next high 1142 on Oct 7 (week 8)
Oct 18-22, 04 10 weeks flat 1090 next high 1218 on Jan 3 (week 11)
Jan 3- 7, 05 21 weeks high 1186 next high 1196 on Jan 18 (week 2)
Mar 21-25, 05 52 weeks trough low

26-week Dow cycle troughs
Oct 9, 98 Dow 7379
Apr 9, 99 Dow 9826 length 26 weeks
Oct 22, 99 Dow 9884 length 28 weeks
Mar 10, 00 Dow 9611 length 20 weeks
Oct 20, 00 Dow 9571 length 32 weeks
Mar 23, 01 Dow 9106 length 22 weeks
Sep 21, 01 Dow 8062 length 26 weeks
Feb 8, 02 Dow 9580 length 20 weeks
Oct 10, 02 Dow 7197 length 35 weeks
Mar 12, 03 Dow 7416 length 22 weeks
Aug 6, 03 Dow 8997 length 22 weeks
Mar 24, 04 Dow 10007 length 32 weeks
Aug 13, 04 Dow 9784 length 20 weeks
sample size 12 Spring sample 7 Fall sample 5
total 305 weeks total 152 weeks total 153 weeks
average 25 weeks average 22 weeks average 31 weeks
st dev 2 weeks st dev 1 weeks st dev 2 weeks

next approximate Dow trough
Dec 31, 04 20 weeks minimum length in samples
Feb 4, 05 25 weeks average length in samples
Mar 18, 05 31 weeks average length in Fall samples

source of dates

timeanddate.com

TRIN, A/D, and U/D for Friday Jan 21, 2005
_ 5d TRIN 10d TRIN 10d A/D 10d U/D 21d A/D 21d U/D
DJIA/NYSE 1.43 1.33 1.00 0.83 0.97 0.81
OTC 1.29 1.22 0.82 0.77 0.84 0.79
S&P 500 1.25 1.26 0.83 0.73 0.81 0.73
S&P 100 1.42 1.41 0.74 0.66 0.76 0.70
NASDAQ 100 1.38 1.43 0.83 0.71 0.77 0.70
NYSE Advance/Decline ratio
stockcharts.com.
Nasdaq Advance/Decline ratio
stockcharts.com.
TRIN overbought <= 0.75 oversold >= 1.50
Adv/Dec ratio overbought >= 1.25 oversold <= 0.75
Up/Dn vol ratio overbought >= 1.25 oversold <= 0.75
Note: the above TRINs use an exponential average of daily TRIN values.
below, I've provided the normal TRINs that use a regular moving avg.
_ 5d TRIN 10d TRIN
DJIA/NYSE 1.29 1.28
OTC 1.29 1.17
S&P 500 1.42 1.26
S&P 100 1.57 1.42
NASDAQ 100 1.85 1.49

TRIN, A/D, and U/D for Tuesday Mar 11, 2003
_ 5d TRIN 10d TRIN 10d A/D 10d U/D 21d A/D 21d U/D
DJIA/NYSE 2.42 2.06 0.87 0.72 0.94 0.84
OTC 1.46 1.47 0.79 0.63 0.88 0.87
S&P 500 1.08 1.10 0.67 0.65 0.83 0.86
S&P 100 1.34 1.27 0.66 0.65 0.84 0.89
NASDAQ 100 1.24 1.33 0.70 0.59 0.92 0.93
TRIN, A/D, and U/D for Wednesday Oct 9, 2002
_ 5d TRIN 10d TRIN 10d A/D 10d U/D 21d A/D 21d U/D
DJIA/NYSE 1.20 1.34 0.67 0.55 0.70 0.55
OTC 1.06 1.31 0.65 0.55 0.68 0.60
S&P 500 0.96 1.08 0.58 0.54 0.58 0.56
S&P 100 1.03 1.16 0.59 0.52 0.60 0.53
NASDAQ 100 1.18 1.23 0.58 0.52 0.61 0.58
TRIN, A/D, and U/D for Tuesday Jul 23, 2002
_ 5d TRIN 10d TRIN 10d A/D 10d U/D 21d A/D 21d U/D 55d A/D 55d U/D
DJIA/NYSE 1.30 1.35 0.47 0.41 0.65 0.51 0.79 0.63
OTC 1.07 1.24 0.60 0.71 0.72 0.76 0.78 0.75
S&P 500 1.05 0.92 0.36 0.49 0.51 0.57 0.67 0.66
TRIN, A/D, and U/D for Friday Sep 21, 2001
_ 5d TRIN 10d TRIN 10d A/D 10d U/D 21d A/D 21d U/D 55d A/D 55d U/D
DJIA/NYSE 1.00 1.14 0.45 0.38 0.66 0.50 0.89 0.73
OTC 1.36 1.39 0.48 0.37 0.64 0.49 0.79 0.69
S&P 500 0.96 1.04 0.40 0.35 0.58 0.47 0.79 0.69