Our "hot stove league" here should really be interesting.
The New York Times
January 21, 2005
POLITICAL MEMO
Off the Podium, '08 Race Lurks as a Source of Discord
By ADAM NAGOURNEY
WASHINGTON, Jan. 20 - For the past half-century, there has been a reliable political dynamic at every presidential inauguration. Someone on the platform - usually the president or the vice president - had already emerged as the party's likely candidate for an election that was still four years away.
Which is what made the scene outside the Capitol here on Thursday morning so unusual. For the first time since the inaugural of 1949, the president and vice president were considered to be at the end of their elective political careers.
At the same moment, Democrats, thoroughly out of power in Congress, are adrift in their search for a leader, much less a candidate for 2008, after a debilitating loss in November.
"If you go back and look, 2008 will be the first election in modern times when there is no heir apparent on either side," said Matthew Dowd, who was a senior adviser to Mr. Bush's presidential campaign. "It's amazing. It's a happenstance of history."
Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico, a Democrat who has been mentioned as a potential candidate for 2008, said: "You have a totally wide-open field with no leading candidate and no 800-pound gorillas on each side. You're seeing generation changes in both parties, and you're seeing totally new faces emerge."
Even before Mr. Bush officially began his second term, that happenstance had produced an atmosphere of uncertainty that shadowed Thursday's festivities and is poised to influence politics and policy for the president and the Democrats.
Mr. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney, who has forsworn another run in politics, had their morning. But they were surrounded by Democrats and Republicans who represent the face of a crowded presidential race and are already maneuvering for advantage in what scholars described as the most wide-open election since before Dwight D. Eisenhower entered the race in 1952.
Mr. Bush could glance around him, as he waited to take the oath, and see not only the Republican Senators Bill Frist of Tennessee and John McCain of Arizona, but also the Democratic Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and John Kerry of Massachusetts, just four of the many people who have signaled interest in running in 2008. Rudolph W. Giuliani fended off questions on CNN about whether he could see himself walking down Pennsylvania Avenue in 2009, while Mr. Kerry sent an e-mail message on the eve of the inauguration to supporters announcing his opposition to the nomination of Condoleezza Rice as secretary of state.
While this turn of events has repercussions for both parties, it has particularly strong implications for Mr. Bush and his party for the next four years. Mr. Bush and the Republican Party are sailing into the kind of choppy waters that are usually associated with Democrats, who by this point are quite accustomed to extended public battles over ideology and issues.
The extent to which Republicans whose thoughts have turned to the White House in 2008 support Mr. Bush's initiatives - particularly on issues like Social Security and immigration - will be critical not only to Mr. Bush's success in Congress, but also in determining his legacy, analysts and party officials say. And the vigor with which Republican candidates align themselves with Mr. Bush can be taken as an early verdict on the success of his second term.
In one notable moment a few hours before Mr. Bush was sworn in, Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, a potential Republican presidential candidate, said that while Social Security needed work, he did not consider it to be in crisis. Mr. Hagel seemed to be drawing a distinction with Mr. Bush, who in pushing for an overhaul of Social Security has consistently portrayed it as in crisis.
Republicans argued that the party would survive, even thrive, in this period because Mr. Bush had been definitive in setting out a mission.
"You have a president that arguably has the boldest agenda of a recently elected president since 1937," said Ken Mehlman, the Republican National Committee chairman, who was Mr. Bush's campaign manager. "Because of the nature of that president, because the president and members of Congress campaigned on that agenda, that is going to dominate what our party is thinking about and talking about and working for."
Perhaps. But officials in both parties said that the next four years might be a lot easier if there was an heir apparent. Without an obvious heir, the ideological fissures in his party that Mr. Bush has managed to bridge so well could rupture, causing the kind of debates Republicans have avoided for nearly 30 years.
"I believe that '08 is going to be a mess for them, and Bush is going to be held accountable for them," said Terry McAuliffe, the Democratic national chairman.
Not that Democrats are in much better shape. Asked to name the leading candidate in his own party, Mr. McAuliffe paused and said, "We're going to have a big open field."
The celebrations across Washington served as a reminder of the difficulties Mr. McAuliffe's party faces. Mr. Kerry and Ms. Clinton were not seen after their appearance at the swearing-in. John Edwards of North Carolina, who was Mr. Kerry's running mate, skipped all the events, spending the day at his Washington home.
While it may seem early for anyone to think about 2008, politicians on both sides have already begun making active and open preparations. In early February, Mr. Edwards is heading to a Democratic dinner in New Hampshire, which holds the nation's earliest primary.
And there were reminders that the president is not the last of the Bushes in public life. He was accompanied by his brother Jeb, the governor of Florida, who has ruled out a run for president in 2008, but who could very well run later, and by his nephew George P. Bush.
Republicans face the rare combination of a second-term president and a vice president who has no interest in running for office again. From Richard M. Nixon in 1956 to Al Gore in 1996, vice presidents have been viewed as having the inside track.
Mr. Dowd, who is coming off of what was widely viewed as one of the more dramatic elections of recent times, argued that 2008 might actually prove more consequential.
"This is going to be an interesting election," he said. "I think 2008 will tell us the answer to the question of what direction each party is heading, and which way the country is going. 2008 will be the real thing."
Copyright 2005 The New York Times Company |
