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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: LindyBill who wrote (96499)1/23/2005 10:39:09 PM
From: aladin  Respond to of 793928
 
Japan's ageing workforce: built to last

By Nick Mackie
In Japan


In his twenties he battled tuberculosis for eight years, then went on to run his own clothing business before marrying in his late thirties. And the 101-year-old Torao Toshitsune has eaten raw fish pretty much every day throughout his life.

Torao Toshitsune wants to become Japan's oldest

Mr Toshitsune is one of Japan's 23,000 centenarians - a club that is growing by 13% annually, and where the oldest member is 114.

At his neat Osaka detached house, where he lives with one of his sexagenarian daughters, Mr Toshitsune keeps a regular routine of copying out Buddhist sutras and preparing the traditional Japanese tea ceremony.

Between tasks, this remarkably active senior citizen reveals what his next goal is: "Well, what's most important for me is to be Japan's number one."

Mr Toshitsune wants to outlive everyone.

And when it comes to longevity, Japan, as a country, appears to be doing just that. Women can expect to live until 85, men until 78, four years longer than Americans and Europeans.

Infertile

On the outskirts of Kyoto, 83-year-old Yuji Shimizu contemplates this phenomenon during a round of golf with his younger friends, who are in their seventies.

"I think this is because the food industry and the environment have improved," he remarks. "On average, we can live longer."

Whether it's the diet, or the traditional family structure where roles were clearly defined, or just something in the genes, Japan's elderly are remarkable.

But while life may be a game of golf for Mr Shimizu, his grandchildren have huge problems ahead.

Japan is the world's least fertile nation with childbirth rates of just two thirds of that in the US.

Poorly prepared

By 2007, Japan's population is expected to peak at 127 million, then shrink to under 100 million by the middle of the century. This means 30 million fewer workers at a time when the number of elderly will have almost doubled.

"In the year 2050, if the birth rate remains the same people over 60 will make up over 30% of the population," explains Shigeo Morioka of the International Longevity Centre in Tokyo.

So how will Japan's finances stay on track?

After a decade of economic stagnation and huge deficit spending, the public sector debt is already about 140% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP), the highest rate among industrialised countries.

The International Monetary Fund predicts that as the falling birth rate takes grip from 2010, the cost of running Japan's welfare state will double to more than 5% of GDP, while current account balances will deteriorate by over 2%.

But unfortunately, Japan appears poorly prepared both financially and politically.

Glen Wood, Vice President of Deutsche Securities Japan, asks; "Who's going to fund the pension fund for the next generation and indeed who are going to be the new Japanese worker?

"Who is going to build the economy, who are going to be the leaders? Who are going to be the producers of the GDP going forward?"

One option is further welfare reform. Another is immigration, possibly from the Philippines and Indonesia. But so far, any emerging policy appears restricted to a limited number of nursing staff.

Immigration

Standing next to Tokyo harbour is a version of New York's Statue of Liberty. But, as yet, Japan is not ready for an Ellis Island.


The entire economy could be at risk due to a shortage of workers

"Japan has never really liked that option in its history and I think it's an option that's becoming more and more plausible and necessary," insists Mr Wood.

In Japan, as in Europe which also faces a workforce decline, immigration is a very sensitive subject.

But for the Japanese economy, facing 8% fewer consumers by 2050 means slumping domestic sales of cars, hi-tech kit and home appliances, perhaps even another property crash.

Fertility and immigration

Of course the Japanese could always have more children. The government is currently considering financial rewards for procreative couples similar to those in operation in Australia.

But there would be no pay back until 2030, when today's babies are taxpayers, and the demographic crisis, like in Europe, starts to unfold in 2010.

In contrast to Japan - and of course the European Union - the US population is expected to increase by 46% to 420 million by the middle of the century.

Although President Bush must re-devise Social Security to take account of a 130% rise in America's over 65s, the IMF foresees a positive contribution to the US current account balance from the combined forces of fertility and immigration.

Permanent recession

Some voices in Japanese industry are calling for radical changes to the nature of the Japanese labour market. They want a shift towards financial services, though doubts persist over the country's ability, let alone willingness, to move away from manufacturing.

"Japan still has problems getting a viable banking system, let alone shifting their auto business or their semi-conductor business or the broad based tech manufacturing business overseas," says Mr Wood.

Japan can either drive some radical reforms or else run the risk of a vicious ageing recession. Falling demand and a lower tax take could result in soaring budget pressures and a basket case currency.

Come 2020, Japan could be more dependent on a shrinking workforce than any other industrialised power. There are fears that the world's number two economy is doomed to a permanent recession.

But none of this is Mr Toshitsune's concern anymore. At 101, he chuckles that, he feels fine.

news.bbc.co.uk



To: LindyBill who wrote (96499)1/23/2005 10:52:24 PM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 793928
 
More "inside intel"

INTELLIGENCE
Pentagon Sends Own Spy Units Into Battlefield
By ERIC SCHMITT
The New York Times
January 24, 2005

WASHINGTON, Jan. 23 - The Pentagon has created battlefield intelligence units that for the first time have been assigned to work directly with Special Operations forces on secret counterterrorism missions, tasks that had been largely the province of the Central Intelligence Agency, senior Defense Department officials said Sunday.

The small clandestine teams, drawn from specialists within the Defense Intelligence Agency, provide the military's elite Special Operations units with battlefield intelligence using advanced technology, recruit spies in foreign countries, and scout potential targets, the officials said.

The teams, which officials say have been operating in Iraq, Afghanistan and other countries for about two years, represent a prime example of Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld's desire to expand the Pentagon's ability to collect human intelligence - information gathered by spies rather than by technological means - both within the military services and the Defense Intelligence Agency, whose focus is on intelligence used on the battlefield.

"It is accurate and should not be surprising that the Department of Defense is attempting to improve its longstanding human intelligence capability," the Pentagon spokesman, Lawrence Di Rita, said in a statement on Sunday. "A principal conclusion of the 9/11 commission report is that the U.S. human intelligence capability must be improved across the board."

Mr. Di Rita's statement came in response to an article in The Washington Post on Sunday that disclosed the existence of the clandestine units.

Some intelligence experts said the creation of the units was the latest chapter in a long-running battle for intelligence dominance between Mr. Rumsfeld's Defense Department and the C.I.A., a battle that has only intensified since the 9/11 commission recommended creating the job of national intelligence director to oversee all intelligence programs.

"This is really a giant turf battle," said Walter P. Lang, a former head of the Defense Human Intelligence Service, a branch of the Defense Intelligence Agency.

Among the C.I.A.'s concerns, former intelligence officials have said, are that an expanded Pentagon role in intelligence-gathering could, by design or effect, escape the strict Congressional oversight imposed by law on such operations when they are carried out by intelligence agencies.

But other analysts said the teams were merely the latest incarnation of intelligence units that the Army, Navy and Air Force operated throughout the cold war to recruit spies, debrief defectors and gather information about foreign weapons systems in countries like China and the Soviet Union.

"D.O.D. is not looking to go develop strategic intelligence," said one senior adviser to Mr. Rumsfeld who has an intelligence background. "They're looking for information like, where's a good landing strip? Who's going to get our guys in and out of the country? Who will rat out the activities of home countries' military and intelligence services?"

The intelligence teams are made up of case officers, linguists, interrogators and other specialists from the Defense Human Intelligence Service. Within the Defense Intelligence Agency, these teams are known as the Strategic Support Operations Group, said a senior Pentagon official who has been briefed on their activities. The group is headed by Col. George Waldroup, an Army intelligence reservist and former midlevel manager at the Immigration and Naturalization Service. These front-line teams can be deployed more often, and closer to front lines, than other D.I.A. units called national intelligence support teams, which are groups of technical experts sent to commanders' wartime headquarters to provide analytical advice.

"Prior to the 9/11 commission issuing their conclusion that the nation's human intelligence capability must be improved, the Defense Human Intelligence Service has been taking steps to be more focused and task-oriented for the global war on terror," Mr. Di Rita said in the statement. "One of the objectives of this effort is to make better human intelligence capability available to assist combatant commanders for specific missions involving regular or special operations forces."

The teams work closely with the Special Operations Command in Tampa, Fla., and its clandestine component, the Joint Special Operations Command, at Fort Bragg, N.C., which includes the Army unit popularly known as Delta Force.

The Pentagon is drawing up a range of plans that would give the military a more prominent role in intelligence-collection operations. Among the ideas cited by Defense Department officials is the idea of "fighting for intelligence," or commencing combat operations chiefly to obtain intelligence.

One proposal described by Defense Department officials is the creation of a Joint Intelligence Operational Command within the Pentagon, which would elevate intelligence missions to much more prominence and possibly replace the Defense Intelligence Agency.

Many of the new approaches stem from initiatives by Stephen A. Cambone, the under secretary of defense for intelligence, and his deputy, Lt. Gen. William G. Boykin of the Army, Pentagon officials said.

Even some of Mr. Rumsfeld's supporters acknowledge that as the Pentagon takes on new intelligence-related activities, it has not yet fully worked out coordination issues like details to ensure the C.I.A. knows its units' activities and locations.

In his statement Sunday, Mr. Di Rita disputed any suggestion that the Pentagon's new human-intelligence activities cross any legal lines or are conducted without the C.I.A. or Congress being notified.

"These actions are being taken within existing statutory authorities to support traditional military operations, and any assertion to the contrary is wrong," Mr. Di Rita said. "The department remains in regular consultation with the relevant committees in Congress and with other agencies within the intelligence community, including the C.I.A."

A Central Intelligence Agency spokesman declined to comment on The Washington Post article.

In recent weeks intelligence officials who have been asked about Pentagon efforts to expand intelligence-gathering efforts have responded carefully, praising current levels of cooperation between the Pentagon and the C.I.A., but saying the relationship depends on each agency focusing on the tasks it does best.

A former senior intelligence official who left his post last year said he had known that the Defense Department was seeking a greater role in human intelligence. But he said he had not known that the Defense Department had begun any such effort, and said he did not believe the Central Intelligence Agency had been notified.

"I was astounded, and it's the sort of thing I should have known about, given the perch I had," he said of the details reported by The Washington Post.

A second former intelligence official said there had been extensive discussions between the C.I.A. and the Pentagon in the past two years about Defense Department efforts to expand its role in gathering human intelligence. Among those involved were General Boykin and James L. Pavitt, who stepped down as the C.I.A.'s deputy director of operations last August.

But that former intelligence official said the C.I.A. believed as recently as last summer that it had forestalled General Boykin's efforts to expand the Pentagon's role into collecting human intelligence in areas like terrorism and the proliferation of illicit weapons.

Douglas Jehl contributed reporting for this article.

Copyright 2005 The New York Times Company