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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RealMuLan who wrote (22024)	1/24/2005 12:41:06 AM
From: RealMuLan	Respond to of 116555

OPEC: China's crude oil imports hit a record 01:26 2005-01-24 World crude oil prices soared as traders turned cautious amid cold temperatures in the US while bracing for the upcoming OPEC meeting and landmark Iraqi elections. New York's main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in March jumped 1.22 dollars to 48.53 dollars a barrel in closing trade. In London, the price of Brent North Sea crude oil for delivery in March gained 1.41 dollars to close at 45.73 dollars, wrote the Turkish Press. According to the New Zealand Herald, customs data released on Friday showed China's crude imports hit a record 12.1 million tonnes in December, sending total 2004 imports to 122.7 million tonnes, a rise of almost 35 per cent from last year. China is now the world's second largest energy consumer behind the United States. "We should expect record import volumes from China every month. Demand growth is slowing but is still growing faster than domestic production," said Gordon Kwan, director of oil and gas research at CLSA in Hong Kong. OPEC said it was raising its forecast for global oil demand growth this year to 83.64 million barrels per day, marking an increase of two percent on 2004. The 11-member cartel agreed in Cairo last month to reduce production by one million barrels a day from the start of 2005 to bring the group closer to its official output ceiling of 27 million barrels. Expectations of an output cut have increased in recent days after the United States announced further builds in its crude stockpiles."If they do intend to cut production prices are definitely going to go above US$50," said Qureshi, analyst at PFC Energy. "As US stocks build there are concerns that OPEC may seek to make an additional cut in crude supply, after agreeing to trim over-quota leakage by a million barrels per day from Jan. 1," analysts at the Sucden brokerage firm said, as Taipei Times has reported. newsfromrussia.com

To: RealMuLan who wrote (22024)	1/24/2005 9:44:34 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

UK Q4 GDP in focus following Dec retail sales slide Monday, January 24, 2005 8:05:28 AM LONDON (AFX) - Sterling markets will be closely monitoring official UK fourth quarter GDP data on Wednesday in light of a dismal set of December retail sales figures Analysts said there is an increasing likelihood that the UK economy may have grown by less than its long-term trend of 0.6 pct quarterly growth for the second consecutive quarter. In the third quarter, the economy grew by 0.5 pct Though the consensus of analysts' expectations remains for growth of 0.6 pct, the retail sales data, released Friday, generated some renewed concerns, especially as industrial production is likely to have contracted once again. The office of National Statistics said sales declined by 1 pct in December from the previous month, with weakness registered across the board "With retail sales growth of just 0.3 pct during Q4, it introduces downside risks to Q4 GDP growth," said John Butler, economist at HSBC At the same time the ONS will unveil its first estimate of what growth in the calendar year was In his pre-budget report in December, Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown said he expected 2004 growth to stand at 3.25 pct. Anything below trend growth during the fourth quarter will make that prospect even more unlikely Nevertheless, the data is not expected to prompt the Bank of England into cutting the cost of borrowing any time soon, especially as the BoE's governor Mervyn King has expressed doubts about both the December retail sales figure and the sustained weakness in the official manufacturing data On Thursday, King urged the markets not to read too much in the retail sales data given the scale of the seasonal adjustments In a speech to business leaders, King said it would be "foolish to put too much weight" on one month's figures, especially over Christmas, adding that the "true meaning" of the Christmas story will only emerge at around Easter "As a result, the monthly data can be volatile and little economic significance should be attached to the number for any one month," he said. King, who had advance notice of the data, stressed that the MPC considers longer-term trends. Those trends suggest that consumer spending growth has fallen to a more sustainable rate over the last two or three years, close to its post-war average Wednesday's publication of the minutes to January's rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee are likely to cement expectations that interest rates are likely to stay on hold at 4.75 pct for some time to come The minutes to December's meeting surprised the market because some of the nine-member panel discussed the need to cut interest rates, largely in connection with sterling's rise, weaker global data and mounting housing market concerns "January's minutes are likely to be less dovish," said David Page, economist at Investec Securities Since Nov 2003, the MPC has raised borrowing costs a quarter point on five occasions as it sought to cap inflationary pressures stemming from rampant consumer demand and above-trend economic growth forexstreet.com

To: RealMuLan who wrote (22024)	1/24/2005 10:24:01 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

UK Q4 GDP in focus following Dec retail sales slide Monday, January 24, 2005 8:05:28 AM LONDON (AFX) - Sterling markets will be closely monitoring official UK fourth quarter GDP data on Wednesday in light of a dismal set of December retail sales figures Analysts said there is an increasing likelihood that the UK economy may have grown by less than its long-term trend of 0.6 pct quarterly growth for the second consecutive quarter. In the third quarter, the economy grew by 0.5 pct Though the consensus of analysts' expectations remains for growth of 0.6 pct, the retail sales data, released Friday, generated some renewed concerns, especially as industrial production is likely to have contracted once again. The office of National Statistics said sales declined by 1 pct in December from the previous month, with weakness registered across the board "With retail sales growth of just 0.3 pct during Q4, it introduces downside risks to Q4 GDP growth," said John Butler, economist at HSBC At the same time the ONS will unveil its first estimate of what growth in the calendar year was In his pre-budget report in December, Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown said he expected 2004 growth to stand at 3.25 pct. Anything below trend growth during the fourth quarter will make that prospect even more unlikely Nevertheless, the data is not expected to prompt the Bank of England into cutting the cost of borrowing any time soon, especially as the BoE's governor Mervyn King has expressed doubts about both the December retail sales figure and the sustained weakness in the official manufacturing data On Thursday, King urged the markets not to read too much in the retail sales data given the scale of the seasonal adjustments In a speech to business leaders, King said it would be "foolish to put too much weight" on one month's figures, especially over Christmas, adding that the "true meaning" of the Christmas story will only emerge at around Easter "As a result, the monthly data can be volatile and little economic significance should be attached to the number for any one month," he said. King, who had advance notice of the data, stressed that the MPC considers longer-term trends. Those trends suggest that consumer spending growth has fallen to a more sustainable rate over the last two or three years, close to its post-war average Wednesday's publication of the minutes to January's rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee are likely to cement expectations that interest rates are likely to stay on hold at 4.75 pct for some time to come The minutes to December's meeting surprised the market because some of the nine-member panel discussed the need to cut interest rates, largely in connection with sterling's rise, weaker global data and mounting housing market concerns "January's minutes are likely to be less dovish," said David Page, economist at Investec Securities Since Nov 2003, the MPC has raised borrowing costs a quarter point on five occasions as it sought to cap inflationary pressures stemming from rampant consumer demand and above-trend economic growth forexstreet.com