Comments on the Iraq elections from Egyptian blogger Big Pharaoh:
Sunday, January 23, 2005
I Took Action
Today I woke up a little bit late since I took Sunday off from work because of the Eid. I grabbed the paper and sat down to read it while having my morning coffee. They had a report about next week's Iraqi elections on double spread pages. The main headline said: Iraq's Elections, No Legality, No Authenticity, No Democracy. There was a huge picture of Ayad Allawi sitting on a throne. Bush's face was above the throne and his hands were holding it. The picture meant that Bush will eventually enthrone "his candidate" on Iraq's throne no matter what the elections results turn out to be.
I got furious and did something that I really wanted to do for a long time. I jumped out of my table, grabbed the phone, and called the paper! I asked for Mrs. MN, the reviewer of this report.
GM: hello, can I speak to Mrs. MN?
Operator: Just a second.
Man: hello
GM: yes, can I speak to Mrs. MN?
Man: I am afraid she's not in the office at the moment, who is with me?
GM: I just wanted to talk to her
Man: Do you have a comment on today's page sir?
GM: Yes. In today's report the headline said that Iraq's elections won't be democratic or authentic or legal. My question is: why was Palestine's election considered democratic, authentic, and legal by your respected newspaper? Why the double standards?
Man: So do you agree with this election?
GM: It is not me who agrees, it is the majority of Iraqis. The majority of Shias, Kurds, and many Sunnis want this election. My question is: why treat Iraq differently? Palestine is under Israeli occupation and your newspaper said absolutely nothing about the legality or the authenticity of the elections there.
Man: Oh sir, we just looked at the issue from a western point of view. We said that America will install its own ruler.
GM: Well, why look at it from a western point of view, why not from an Iraqi point of view!!!! Iraq's major Shia religious establishment is behind this election and they want it. It's not a matter of America wanting it or not, it's a matter of who wants it in Iraq. The Shias, who are a majority, all Kurds, and many Sunnis, want this election. Who are we to tell them what they should want???
Man: So you do you think will win? Allawi?
GM: I don't think Allawi will be a big winner because many are disappointed with the performance of his government. However, it is very clear that Sistani's list will win big time.
Man: Well, please give me your name and phone number and I will pass your comments to Mrs. MN. Next Sunday we will have another report on the same topic. We might call you to get your insights.
GM: I'd be happy to do so. Thanks a million for giving me your time.
// posted by GM @ 3:24 PM Comments (6) | Trackback (0)
Saturday, January 22, 2005
Update:
You can view the election ad I mentioned in the previous post from here. You can also watch other ads and read their english transcripts.
Elections Blues
5 out of Iraq's 18 governorates will be insecure for January 30th elections. Below is Iraq's "threat codes"
Sever: Salah al Din, Al Anbar
Worrisome: Baghdad, Diyala, Ninewa (where Mosul is)
Stable: Basra, Najaf, Thi-Qar, Wassit, Qadissiya, Missan, Babel, Karbala, Muthana, Tameem
Very Stable: Irbil, Dahuk, Sulaymaniyah
You will notice that the 5 dangerous governorates have significant Sunni populations in them. It will take time until major Sunni players suddenly realize that they are not the monopoly in Iraq. I think the elected National Assembly, with its Shia majority, must reach out to Sunnis.
The "Sunni problem" is very complicated because of 2 reasons. First, the Sunni Baathists and aristocracy lost power and they simply want it back. I am not sure whether they will settle for a compromise. Second, the Sunni barbaric animalistic Wahabis/Salafist will never sit with the Shias on the same table and share the country. In other words, you can't negotiate with those guys.
Yesterday one of those animals packed an ambulance with explosives and rammed the vehicle into a Shia wedding party. The bride and the groom were killed along with scores of other people. What kind of person will sacrifice his own life just to kill a number of Shias??!!
Was I surprised when that happened? No. Not longtime ago, a person in Pakistan who adheres to the same ideology as his buddy in Iraq packed his own vehicle with explosives and slammed it into a Shia mosque. So, killing Shias appears to be one of the Sunnis Wahabi/Salafists favorite shortcuts to the path that leads to the virgins in paradise.
Will this elections cause civil war? The answer depends upon the following:
-The level of attacks against Shias in Iraq
-Will Shias suddenly say "we had enough" and carry the gun?
-How will the new Shia dominated national assembly reach out to Sunni Baathists and tribal Sheikhs and how much leverage do these 2 entities have over the Wahabists/Salafists?
-If Sunni Baathists and other prominent Sunnis accepted a compromise, will the Salafists/Wahabists abandon the jihad against America and against the expected Shia dominated government?
bigpharaoh.blogspot.com
(Thanks to Nadine Carol for finding this) |
