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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (47682)1/24/2005 5:35:13 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF  Respond to of 50167
 
In the decades ahead, the center of the global HIV/AIDS pandemic is set to shift from Africa to Eurasia. The death toll in that region's three pivotal countries--Russia, India, and China--could be staggering. This will assuredly be a humanitarian tragedy, but it will be much more than that. The disease will alter the economic potential of the region's major states and the global balance of power. Moscow, New Delhi, and Beijing could take steps to mitigate the disaster--but so far they have not.

After decimating sub-Saharan Africa, the HIV/AIDS epidemic is now reaching alarming proportions in Eurasia. Earlier this month, the UN's top HIV/AIDS official said the epidemic was "perilously close to a tipping point" in China, India, and Russia, where, although it is still confined to high-risk populations and geographically contained, it is on the verge of an exponential outbreak. That somber warning echoes the prognosis of Nicholas Eberstadt in a Foreign Affairs article two years ago, in which he argued that, by spreading to these huge economies, the disease could soon threaten world prosperity and the global balance of power.

The Future of AIDS
Nicholas Eberstadt
From Foreign Affairs, November/December 2002