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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (22094)	1/24/2005 9:08:45 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

grain report CORN Hi, this Tim Hannagan its Monday Jan. 24 and the markets are closed. Our first report of the day was our weekly export sales report delayed form last Thursday telling us how much grain was sold the week before last week. Sales came in at 915 t.t. up 39% from the week prior and 46% over our four week average. Asian sales were 464 versus 198 the week prior. It’s a friendly number at best as its comparison is to a holiday shortened week. Our weekly export inspection report showed 37.9 m.b. were inspected for near tem export up form 27.7 the week prior, over our four week average of 27.5 and a year ago of 35.5 year todate inspections are 705 m.b. versus 746 a year ago. Like our sales report the inspections are up on the week but not bullish numbers just a friendly number for today. Corn found strength early on two report issues. One, the weekly export sales and inspection reports all came in over the week prior and two, Fridays post market cattle on feed report showed placements of cattle on feed yard to be fattened on corn for December were up 4.9% over a year ago. Nothing today suggest a bullish turn around in pricing as we are looking at almost 2 b.b. to be left over in storage at the start of our 2005 harvest. March support is 1.95 then 1.90 with resistance up at 2.07 then 2.10. Corns best chance for a rally come as large speculative traders are holding 120 thousand short positions and small speculators forty thousand. If large speculators take month end profits we would pick up buy stops by the small specs and push to 2.07 best case scenario but the overall mood remains bearish into Feb. you need a close over 2.10 on March and 2.16 may to turn bullish on the charts. BEANS We started with our weekly export sales for the week of Jan.10 showing 859 t.t. were sold verses 1.066 m.t. the week prior and under our four week average by 8%. Though we were off slightly key Asian sales were up at 427 t.t. and China in for 343 t.t. Our inspection report showed 39 m.b. were inspected for near tem export versus 26.6 the week prior over our four week average of 27.7 and a year ago of 29.8. year to date inspections are 624 m.b. versus 594 a year ago. Both reports are slightly friendly demand signals. Beans opened higher off the overall better numbers but also on talk weekend rains in South America were lighter than expected and as I noted on my Friday report WXRISK.COM the weather site said we would come in today Monday and see a 7 day outlook warmer and drier and we did. On today’s update he suggests rains could return next week to the dry areas so our rally could be limited to month end short covering before Friday from this point. Rains this week in Brazil look to be mainly central into northern regions leaving their key big southern producing region dry while all of Argentina is dry all week. March sees funds short about 70 thousand contracts up significantly from the week prior leaving room to see more short covering before Friday. March has support at 5.10 and resistance 5.26. A close over 5.26 and we could see 5.50 but further weather problems are needed for that price. A close under 5.10 and perfect South American weather into March 1 we could see a low of 4.60 area. WHEAT Our weekly export sales report delayed from last week showed 451 t.t. 9of wheat was sold up 10% form the week prior and 25% over our four week average. These numbers are form the week of Jan. 10. Asian sales were better but 650 or more is needed to be bullish. Our weekly export inspection report showed 17.3 m.b. were inspected for near term export up form 14.8 the week prior and four week average of 15.2 but we were under a year ago for f31 m.b. year to date inspections are 697 m.b. versus 725 a year ago. Both reports combined suggest only a friendly demand signal best not bullish. We opened 3 cents higher but found us down 1 cent at midsesion as traders sold up near technical resistance of 3.00 I gave Friday. Our opening high was 2.99. With the big picture showing demand too weak to bring on buying and our recent snowstorm giving our winter wheat crop a health blanket of snow to protect it while dormant our best for a rally comes off month end short covering by funds. Its estimated their short around forty thousand contracts. We need a close over 3.00 basis March and if that accurse we could push to next resistance of 3.12. A close under 2.95 and 2.82 is next stop.