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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (25246)	1/24/2005 11:36:20 PM
From: SOROS	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

So what are you invested in now? Just curious. I remain, SOROS

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (25246)	1/25/2005 6:26:04 AM
From: Square_Dealings	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

When you figure out how to determine if a currency is "overpriced" let us know ok. m

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (25246)	1/25/2005 10:38:28 AM
From: mmoursel	Respond to of 110194

Looks like a good call already!

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (25246)	1/25/2005 6:06:57 PM
From: gregor_us	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

The Sentiment on the USD Right Here in Late January has become a bit sloppy, I think. There's alot of belief stacked up on both sides. When Faber made his call (on his website) in early December I think the view was more clear, as was his contrarian take. What happened then, imo, as we moved into late December was that a counter-trend Consensus developed very quickly, as alot of contrarian veterans began to fall in line, calling for a dollar rally. The dollar of course plumbed fresh lows in the final week. It's notable, however, that Zulauf, continues to make that call at the outset of January. I regard Zulauf's call as more substantial, really, than Faber's--in its import. I read Zulauf's call as something more lasting, maybe through mid 2005. I've been watching the USD way too much (for my health) since 1998-1999. In general, I find most commentary--including my own--which attempts to gauge sentiment (and then take the other side) is often wrong. All the indicators which work for stocks and other commodities can lead one astray on the USD, I think, if taken too seriously--from media coverage to "COT Reports." On the latter, while I acknowledge it's not useless to see what USDX contracts are, or the aggregate currency pair contracts are from week to week, all these together are dwarfed by the daily forex flows. And then you have short-term, almost perverse situations as in November in which the USD was really sinking while we later learned fund inflows to the US were soaring--and you get a very creative(and moderately credible) analysis that suggests it was all the forward selling of the USD (hedging) of those inflows that helped the downdraft. As for me, I stick to my turtle-like macro view on the fate of the USD. For example, I don't think the War Supplemental, the Fiscal 2006 budget, the emerging deficit for Fiscal 2005, or the Tax and S.S. Reform plans are yet in the USD right now. Though, that move in the USD right after the Election did indeed attempt to swallow some of the above. BTW, imo contrarian thinking has become increasingly popularized in recent years and its one of the reasons I think counter-trend ideas develop very quickly now into their own consensus. Best, LP