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To: energyplay who wrote (59404)	1/25/2005 2:31:48 PM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 74559

No. In the US the flu season usually peaks toward the end of Jan - middle of Feb. However, it can peak earlier or later and pandemics seem to be able to create their own peaks. In 1918 there were very mild cases in the spring and then the cases started piling up in Sept and many places peaked in Nov. Right now the biggest source of a pandemic are all of the H5N1 infected birds in Vietnam. The virus has new sequences and is more frequently transmitted human to human. Once efficiency is achieved, the virus can move around the world in days and create major problems in weeks. There are many side shows and any could erupt. Thailand and Indonesia probably have more than is reported and they both have tsunami issues. Sri Lanka had a fatal flu before and after the tsunami and now says its major problem is respiratory disease. the Philippines have human to human transmission with a high case fatality arte and Korea has 1933 H1N1 in pigs. Lots of possibilities and the above does include the rest of eastern Asia or Canada.

To: energyplay who wrote (59404)	1/28/2005 5:07:26 PM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 74559

Things continue to heat up in Vietnam, Flu season is just getting rolling in many regions in Asia. WHO is now acknowledging that the case clusters this season are human to human transmission and more clusters are coming news.google.com

To: energyplay who wrote (59404)	1/31/2005 6:46:51 AM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 74559

Now bird flu cases being exported from Cambodia to Vietnam. that's a pretty big red flag news.google.com