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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (25274)	1/25/2005 5:41:53 PM
From: loantech	Respond to of 110194

Give us the thumbnail highlights please. With the market roaring today it looks like a fed hike is coming up. Tipping point to dollar getting stronger with a 50BPS raise and gold dropping like a stone? Or a damper for the regular market? Thanks, Tom

To: russwinter who wrote (25274)	1/25/2005 5:48:05 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

<<Contrary Investor has an incredible, must read, put this in your pipe and smoke it essay this afternoon: what if the Fed raises 50 bps?>> ROTFL! If you believe the Fed would raise by 50, there's no need to put it in yer pipe, 'cause you've already BEEN "smoking it"!<G>

To: russwinter who wrote (25274)	1/25/2005 6:29:58 PM
From: gregor_us	Respond to of 110194

There Was This Ancient Bond Guy on Rukeyser back in the Summer, I think he was from Loomis Sayles, whatever, and I thought he would be very rigid in his outlook, but he was not. His basic line, wrt this current Fed Hike Cycle--is that its implications for the Bond Market were not dire, not anything like 1994 (I think I've got that year right.) However, he said, there was a "cycle" coming after this one, which he said was going to be remarkable. Meanwhile, Paul MCCully is speaking out: __________________________________________________________ By Rachel Koning, MarketWatch Last Update: 5:24 PM ET Jan. 25, 2005 CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve will be conservative with interest-rate hikes over the coming months, Paul McCulley, managing director at leading bond firm Pacific Investment Management Co., predicted Tuesday. "I think the Fed will stop between 2.5 percent and 3 percent," McCulley said in a speech to the Investment Analysts Society of Chicago. The Fed "is not trying to shut this economy down," added McCulley, one of the top decision makers at Newport Beach, Calif.-based Pimco, the largest bond-fund firm as measured by assets under management. __________________________________________________________________ I'm no longer sanguine about the Fed for various reasons. One, I think they are confused and really don't know what they want. Two, McCulley may be right about what the Fed "does not want to do" but that's all about "intention" and a far cry from what they actually do, with its impact. LP

To: russwinter who wrote (25274)	1/25/2005 7:37:47 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

thought you were long miners? even while factoring a 50 bp move possibility? can you summarize CI's thoughts?