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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (25329)	1/26/2005 9:02:19 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

<why do you think the Feds want to be in such a hurry to raise rates?> 1. Even using their understated and bogus inflation data, they (a number of them, think there is a split)) now realize that real interest rates are too low, which has also lead to 2. Too much leveraged speculation and wild man (moral hazard) behavior, incredible given that the fault for this lies squarely at their feet. They now wish to reign this in. 3. Excess demand, imbalanced economy, needs a hiatus. 4. The US has received a strong message from foreign creditors, and I think it's slow down your printing of Dollars and Old Maid Cards, or we may dump.

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (25329)	1/26/2005 9:15:50 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

Wednesday January 26, 7:34 am ET NEW YORK (Reuters) - Applications for U.S. home mortgages decreased last week despite a drop in mortgage rates, an industry group said on Wednesday. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity decreased 3.6 percent to 658.1 in the week ended Jan. 21, after increasing 16.2 percent in the MBA's prior week survey. Despite a decline in mortgage rates to the lowest level in several months, U.S. consumers failed to purchase homes and refinance existing loans. Fixed 30-year mortgage rates averaged 5.58 percent last week, excluding fees, down 6 basis points from 5.64 percent the previous week. That is the lowest level it has been since the week ended Oct 15, 2004, when the rate was at 5.54 percent. During the holiday-shortened week, the MBA's purchase index, a gauge of loan requests for home purchases, fell 2.0 percent last week to 439.0, slightly offsetting the 14.0 percent gain the previous week. The MBA's seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications dropped 5.7 percent to 1,932.8, after a 19.1 percent rise the prior week. Refinancings made up 46.5 percent of all mortgage applications last week, down from 48.9 percent the previous week. Applications for adjustable-rate mortgages fell to 31.7 percent from 32.8 percent of total applications. One-year adjustable-rate mortgage rates averaged 4.21 percent, up from 4.13 percent one week earlier.

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (25329)	1/26/2005 9:20:35 AM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

While most iron ore producers are pushing for contract price increases of 30-50%, RIO is pushing for 90%. Wow!

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (25329)	1/26/2005 9:51:36 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

IMO if Greenspan is concerned with speculation he can jawbone them well first instead of sinking bonds and stocks with 50 bpt hike.

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (25329)	1/26/2005 10:12:19 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

So far, all his jawboning efforts had failed. (that must be a big dent to his ego that the market no longer listen to him) He tried to talk the market out of carry trades - failed. He tried to talk up the yield curve - failed. Ramsey I believe his jawboning has worked rather nicely. The Euro and pound are 6 to 8 cents off their highs, and perhaps he does not want that long end up as he does not want to crash housing. The tightening of the yield curve will make it hard on the carry trade. Those 6-8 cents might even give him room to pause if (when) he needs to. From his perspectve he might think he is a genius. In fact, I bet he does. Mish