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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam who wrote (157012)	1/26/2005 9:45:36 AM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

"But the Bush admin will at least try their best to hold out until after the 2006 elections, using it to rally their supporters once again, just as they did in 2002." Your political analysis is wanting. Any calcuations regarding 2006 must be made now. The first step is minimizing american casualties by moving americans out of harms way as soon after the elections as possible. If the insurgency doesnt split into its component parts with the nationalists using jihadists as a bargaining chip to be involved in new elected government as i surmised in an earlier post, then there will be probably civil war with shiaa backed by kurds, americans and iranians. Sunnis cant win anything beyond setting up a rump sunni state and if that happens eventually baathists and jihadists will be at each others throats. This is all so unsettled that its best for the US to take a defensive posture. American voters in 06 will care little about iraqi carnage as long as americans are largely out of harms way. I know what i have presented above is somewhat disjointed as I am not sure if and when insurgent breakup will take place and if and when iraqi nationalists will come to their senses and play ball with the new regime. I am interested in feedback on this one. Both sides in the debate have become way to rigid and we now have a new reality on the ground that needs to be dealt with without the rancor of the past. Its a new page and one cant just assume that they will be on the opposite side of the admin going forward, unless of course they are just knee jerks. Mike