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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gregor_us who wrote (25340)1/26/2005 10:19:35 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 110194
 
If Greenspan raises .50, the 10 and 30 will rally.

Exactly.
The 10 and 30 might take a hit when he pauses.
However, if he pauses too late, and we are spiriling down Greenspan will not be able to turn around housing with a pause or even a cut IMO.

Mish



To: gregor_us who wrote (25340)1/26/2005 10:41:14 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 110194
 
If Greenspan raises .50, the 10 and 30 will rally.

that's not CI's conclusion at all. if you look at the timing of the 50bp hikes during the last tightening cycle, they caused big spikes in the 10yr. in contrast, the 25bp hikes did not affect the 10yr. ergo, the Fed has a good reason to hike 50bp and kill the 10yr longs.

as Greenspan said, those who have not hedged are "desirous of losing money."

can't say he didn't give a warning.


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