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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Snowshoe who wrote (59508)	1/26/2005 3:20:02 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Why is shorting homebuilders like buying airline stocks ? I think in both cases the macro level themes -rising interest rates, increasing need for air travel - are over come by the competitive and micro economic factors. This ususally doesn't happen. I tend to look at the big macro factors first, and I have the (sometimes hidden) assumption that macro factors will overcome all others. With oil and natural gas, supply demand has been such that almost any oil company stock would make money if held for say 2-3 years. With airlines in a deregulated world, or even a world where regulators favor the traveling public over airline investors, there is no barrier to entry, no sustainable competitive advantage, and for the industry as a whole, NO PROFITS. The US homebuilders have an opposite situation. The dozen or so public companies are competing with much, much smaller local builders. The public companies have access to cheaper capital, both debt and equity, and have 'land - banked' much desirable acerage at low prices. They get economies of scale and volume discounts on parts (stoves, air conditioners, wiring panels, bath tubs). This means higher profits or lower selling prices. They get a better learning curve from thier experience. They get better working with local zoning boards and politcians. Being geopgraphicaly diverse, they can move activites to hot, profitable areas. Right now, the public companies build only about 20-25% of US houses - they can gain market share for a long time. Additionally, the valuations of the homebuilders are still low relative to the market. Throw in the fact that all the homeboys have been over shorted - just like Krispy Kreme DOghnuts was.... ************* I bought today - MSB Mesabi Trust - sells iron ore. (not most significant bit) I will need to do more DD.

To: Snowshoe who wrote (59508)	1/26/2005 7:19:33 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

:0) Hello Snowshoe, No, I am not feeling any bull horns in my backside due to my shorts on housing. The shorts on housing is like a fine wine, to be aged, added to, layered by months, and then served up one day. And I didn't know I was taunting. I am simply fearful that all is not priced in. As to basing (a) near water, (b) on empty space, (c) away from populations ... I am sure the desert is full of such places, but perhaps not as plentiful when simultaneously true. How many hundreds of thousands of such troops will be based so. According to Stratfor, enough to take out Iran, Syria, and Saudi Arabia, and keep the space. Given the problems in Iraq, is taking out and keeping all of them remotely realistic? Stratfor assumes that all remain static, geopolitically and tactically, to be arranged as they dream it up. No, I fear not all will line up as Stratfor wishes, because the complexities simply are not that straightforward. <<what happens in the populated areas after we pull out?>> We know this already: (a) politicians will get killed (b) older people will fear (c) younger people will do what younger people do (d) kids will get no education, or killed, or turn into more young people (e) ... Chugs, Jay

To: Snowshoe who wrote (59508)	1/27/2005 5:38:28 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

Ronaldo appeals to Iraqi militants. Brazilian soccer star Ronaldo appealed in a videotaped message Wednesday for the release of a Brazilian engineer captured in northern Iraq. feeds.bignewsnetwork.com The appeal by Ronaldo -- who plays for Spain's Real Madrid club -- will be translated into Arabic and aired by Arab TV stations Thursday. Joao Jose Vasconcellos Jr. -- working for the Odebrecht Industrial Group -- was captured last week in northern Iraq and is being held for ransom by insurgents working with the Iraqi militant Army of Ansar al Sunna. <<Perhaps they will settled for a couple of autographed Yellow and Green shirsts>> His two sisters, who reside in Brazil, also made videotape appeals for their brother's release. British-based Arab newspaper Asharq al Awsat sent Brazilian media outlet O Globo a memo saying an appeal for the engineer's release from Brazilian soccer stars would go a long way with his captors. According to the editor, the majority of the militants in Iraq are young and fans of Brazilian soccer players such as Ronaldo and, of course, legendary soccer great Pele.