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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pgerassi who wrote (149206)	1/27/2005 6:58:29 AM
From: cruzbay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Pete: There is an error in your reasoning, which we have indulged in before. At one time, the K7 transition to 130 nm looked capable of supplying a major percentage of world CPU demand. 130 ended up late, the Hammer appeared, and the die size didn't go down, it jumped to 193 sq. mm, and capacity remained low relative to worldwide demand. Your mention of 40 sq. mm. die sizes will never happen; dual core will become quad core, or grow logic or cache, and die sizes will remain within the 100 to 200 sq. mm. range. This reasoning has bit us before, and we should be careful. It is also Intel's main gun; despite the presence of single cores after Smithfield, they are serious about making dual core ubiquitous, and will not stop there. AMD needs enough capacity to both follow that curve AND grow market share. I think that they will, but the percentages will more closely approach Hector's long term 30% number than anything larger or sooner.