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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (22329)1/28/2005 1:41:10 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Celestica plans to cut up to 15% of its global workforce: 5,500 jobs
[what a train wreck this company is
It really galls me that they can report "earnings" while taking 5 huge "one time" charges. mish]

January 27, 2005 - 18:45

TORONTO (CP) - Celestica Inc., a maker of electronics components for other companies, plans to cut up to 15 per cent of its global workforce, about 5,500 jobs, by early next year.

The latest in a series of cuts by the Toronto-based company in recent years was revealed in a financial report Thursday that said Celestica had a net loss of $810 million US, or $3.59 US per share, in the fourth quarter ended Dec. 31.

At the end of 2004, Celestica had 46,000 employees worldwide - about 85 per cent of them in "low-cost geographies" - places such as China, Mexico and Central Europe where wages are lower than in Western Europe, the United States and Canada.

Celestica - known as an electronics manufacturing services company, or EMS - has been losing money in recent years, largely due to costs to account for thousands of layoffs as it restructured its global operations in response to a prolonged slowdown in the tech sector.

The fourth-quarter loss came despite a 22 per cent year-over-year increase in revenue to $2.3 billion US in the three months ended Dec. 31, up from $1.9 billion US in the fourth quarter of 2003.

Operating profits also grew substantially in 2004, Celestica president and CEO Steve Delaney said Thursday in an interview.

"Overall, I'm pretty pleased, frankly," Delaney said. "We came out of a pretty tough 2003 for our company and our industry and set out plans to make major improvements."

Looking back, revenue grew by 31 per cent in 2004 over 2003 and operating profits increased every quarter, ending at 2.6 per cent of revenues by the end of the fourth quarter, he said.

"We hit that even though we saw a pretty significant slowdown in the second half of the year. So, overall, it's certainly not an easy environment. It's a tough business that we're in. But I tell you, I'm pretty proud of the team," Delaney said.

For the first quarter ending March 31, Celestica anticipates revenue will be in the range of $2 billion to $2.225 billion, and adjusted earnings per share will be between 10 cents and 18 cents per share.

Celestica's adjusted earnings is a non-standard measure of profitability that excludes a number of items contained in net earnings. In the fourth quarter, Celestica's adjusted earnings were $43.2 million US, or 19 cents per share.

The company - a 10-year-old IBM spinoff controlled by conglomerate Onex Corp. (TSX:OCX) - has closed many operations in the United States, Canada and Western Europe and shifted production to lower-cost regions.

Last April, it announced it would cut up to 5,000 jobs by early 2005, on top of a previously announced restructuring, including 700 jobs in Montreal due to a plant closing.

That left the company with about 3,000 employees at its head office and manufacturing plant in Toronto, its only remaining Canadian operations.

In its financial report, Celestica attributed the increased fourth-quarter loss, which was nearly five times as high as last-year's loss in the same period, to a number of one-time charges.

The biggest charge was a $387-million-US non-cash writedown of its assets in the Americas and European regions. It is also reducing the value of some of its tax assets by $248 million US and increased a provision for doubtful accounts by $161 million.

The fourth-quarter also included $45 million US in restructuring charges, related to previously announced operational realignments, which have resulted in the closure of numerous sites and the shift of thousands of jobs to low-cost regions.

The latest upheaval will cost the company an additional $225 million to $275 million during 2005 and involve some more plant closures, Celestica said.

The company's restructuring will include some plant closures and a 10 per cent to 15 per cent reduction of Celestica's workforce, about 5,500 employees, over the next 15 months.

Delaney said he was disappointed with the charges the company incurred in the quarter.

He said the increase in provisions for doubtful accounts was due to problems at one customer, which Celestica would not identify.

"Though we've been working with this customer for more than three years, the recent challenges that they've experienced increased the likelihood that certain receivables may not be collected and certain inventories would have to be written down."

Delaney said the restructuring plan will help the company increase its profit margin, which was just 2.6 per cent of revenues in the fourth quarter despite improvements in each quarter of 2004.

The restructuring was announced after the close of stock trading Thursday. Earlier, Celestica shares rose 30 cents to close at $16.60 in trading of nearly 1.4 million shares on the TSX.

In after-hours trading following Thursday's announcement, Celestica shares fell eight cents from the official closing price of $13.32 US on the New York Stock Exchange.

680news.com



To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (22329)1/28/2005 2:12:25 AM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Bush plays race card on SS
nytimes.com

Social Security privatization really is like tax cuts, or the Iraq war: the administration keeps on coming up with new rationales, but the plan remains the same. President Bush's claim that we must privatize Social Security to avert an imminent crisis has evidently fallen flat. So now he's playing the race card.

This week, in a closed meeting with African-Americans, Mr. Bush asserted that Social Security was a bad deal for their race, repeating his earlier claim that "African-American males die sooner than other males do, which means the system is inherently unfair to a certain group of people." In other words, blacks don't live long enough to collect their fair share of benefits.

This isn't a new argument; privatizers have been making it for years. But the claim that blacks get a bad deal from Social Security is false. And Mr. Bush's use of that false argument is doubly shameful, because he's exploiting the tragedy of high black mortality for political gain instead of treating it as a problem we should solve.



To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (22329)1/28/2005 9:04:10 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
U.S. Q4 GDP up 3.1%, slowest in 7 quarters
[ssems the Nothern Trust was spot on with their call yesterday. Mish]
Friday, January 28, 2005 1:48:25 PM

WASHINGTON (AFX) -- Growth in the U.S. economy slowed in the fourth quarter to a 3.1 percent annualized rate, the weakest growth in seven quarters, the Commerce Department said Friday

For all of 2004, the economy grew 4.4 percent, the fastest real growth since 1999's 4.5 percent. In 2004, GDP totaled $11.7 trillion in current dollars

From the fourth quarter of 2003 to the fourth quarter of 2004, the economy grew 3.7 percent

Economists were expecting gross domestic product growth to clock in at a 3.6 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. The economy grew at a 4 percent rate in the third quarter. Looking ahead, economists are currently forecasting 3.3 percent growth in the current quarter.
[I suggest the economists are far too rosy looking ahead. Mish]

In the fourth quarter, consumer spending and business investment contributed the biggest shares to growth. Despite a weaker dollar, international trade subtracted from GDP. Final sales of U.S.-made goods and services increased 2.7 percent annualized, about half the third-quarter's 5 percent growth. Domestic purchases of all goods and services, meanwhile, increased 4.3 percent in the quarter compared with 4.9 percent in the third quarter

The deceleration in growth from the third quarter reflected lower exports, greater imports and a slowdown in consumer spending on durable goods. Inventory investment strengthened

Inflation rates increased slightly, but remained within the Federal Reserve's target zone

The personal consumption expenditure price deflator increased 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter, with a core inflation rate of 1.6 percent. The core rate is up 1.6 percent in the past year, the highest inflation rate in two years. Personal incomes increased by $250.3 billion in the fourth quarter to $9.9 trillion annualized, with more than a third of the growth due to the one-time Microsoft dividend. In the fourth-quarter, consumer spending increased at a 4.6 percent annual rate, down from 5.1 percent in the third quarter. Spending on durables increased 6.7 percent, down sharply from 17.2 percent in the third. Spending on nondurables increased 5.8 percent, while spending on services increased 3.7 percent. Fixed business investment increased at a 10.3 percent rate, down from 13 percent in the third quarter. Investments in equipment and software increased 14.9 percent, while investments in structures declined 4.1 percent

The change in inventories increased $11.3 billion, adding 0.4 percentage points to growth. Residential investments increased 0.3 percent, the slowest growth since the recession ended three years ago

Exports of U.S.-made goods and services declined 3.9 percent, the biggest drop in two years. Meanwhile, imports increased 9.1 percent. The net trade balance subtracted 1.7 percentage points from growth, the largest drag in more than six years
[Looks like no one wants our junk. Now if we would only stop buying. Mish]

Government spending increased 0.9 percent. Federal spending rose 1.6 percent, the slowest growth in a year. Defense spending was flat, while nondefense spending increased 5.1 percent. State and local government spending increased 0.6 percent

Output of motor vehicles contributed 0.9 percentage points to growth, while computer sales added 0.5 percentage points

For all of 2004, consumer spending grew 3.8 percent, the fastest since 2000. Fixed business investment increased 10.3 percent, the most since 1998. Investments in equipment and software increased 13.4 percent, the most since 1997
[This is 100% due to Business tax credits expiring in 2004. Bush cleverly timed these for his election bid. Unlikely to happen again. Mish]

Investments in residences increased 9.5 percent in 2004, the most since 1994
[Also unlikely to happen again. Mish]

Exports grew 8.1 percent in 2004, while imports increased 9.8 percent

Government spending increased 2 percent in 2004, the slowest growth since 1998. Federal spending increased 4.7 percent, as defense spending increased 7.4 percent and nondefense spending fell 0.5 percent. State and local government spending increased 0.4 percent, the smallest growth in 22 years.
[Here is one trend we can all hope escalates. What we really need is a reduction, however. Mish]

forexstreet.com



To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (22329)1/28/2005 9:13:02 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Q4 employment costs moderate
Friday, January 28, 2005 1:49:59 PM
WASHINGTON (AFX) - Compensation to U.S. workers moderated in the fourth quarter, which may alleviate inflation fears at the Federal Reserve

The fourth quarter's employment cost index, which measures wages and salaries paid to the work force plus the cost of benefits, increased 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter after a 0.9 percent gain in the previous quarter, the Labor Department reported Friday. This is the smallest quarterly increase in employment costs since the first quarter of March 1999, The increase in the employment cost index was below forecasts. Economists were expecting a 0.9 percent gain in employment costs, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. Benefit costs were the key driver of the increase in employment costs in the fourth quarter. Benefit costs rose 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter, while wage and salary costs rose a slim 0.4 percent, which is also the smallest rise since the first quarter of 1999
[You can't spend your benefits, only your wages. While benefits went up, medical costs went up faster. Mish]

Economists at Lehman Brothers said wage demands remain muted because employees still believe it is a difficult time to find a job. For all of 2004, employment costs increased 3.7 percent, compared with a 3.8 percent gain in the previous year. Wages and salaries rose a record low 2.4 percent for the year, compared with a 2.9 percent gain in 2003.

Benefit costs accelerated in 2004, rising 6.9 percent compared with a 6.3 percent rise in 2003. This is the fastest pace of benefit costs since the fourth quarter of 1988.
[A good reason to outsource or rely on temps or part timers, all of whom get no benefits. The costs for health care are being shifted to the employees. Mish]

Employment costs for the private sector rose 3.8 percent in 2004, with benefits up 6.9 percent and wages up 2.4 percent. State and local government workers' employment costs rose 3.5 percent in 2004, up from 3.3 percent in the previous year. Benefit costs rose 6.7 percent and wages rose 2.1 percent.

forexstreet.com



To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (22329)1/28/2005 9:23:14 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
UK Dec mortgage approvals slump to 11.5 bln stg from 13.2 bln stg Nov - BBA
Friday, January 28, 2005 11:23:07 AM
afxpress.com

LONDON (AFX) - Mortgage approvals by major UK banks in December slipped to just 11.5 bn stg from 13.2 bln the previous month, in yet another indication that the property market is slowing down, according to data from the British Bankers Association. The number of loans approved was also weak, with only 134,700 in December, some 14.5 pct lower than in November and 29 pct down from December last 2003. The average house purchase loan approval fell to 118,100 stg from 119,800 stg in November

These figures put to bed speculation that that the property market may be seeing a renewed spurt after a period of slowdown. Some sections of the market had been worried of renewed upward pressure after the same BBA data showed that, net mortgage lending in December rose by an underlying 5.2 bln stg - a sharp rebound from the near three year low of 4.2 bln stg the previous month

It had to date been widely held that the Bank of England's five quarter point rate hikes since November 2003 had dampened the housing market. "This time of year sees a seasonal weakness in loan demand, but with approval volumes running well below those in the same month a year earlier, mortgage lending is expected to remain relatively subdued in the near-term," David Dooks, BBA director of statistics, said