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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kpf who wrote (149331)	1/28/2005 1:18:09 PM
From: dougSF30	Respond to of 275872

kpf, Q1 historical average seasonaltiy is minus ten percent for CPG. Holding GM under this assumption is very optimistic. The fact Bob guides SG&A down as much as he did is not exactly an indication he expects much more than seasonality. The guidance was: CPG revenues FLAT to "slightly down". ("slightly" having been 2% revenue difference the past 2 times it has been employed.) At the same time, the guidance is for ASPs to rise slightly. If these both happen, GMs stay about the same. MG&A being returned to Q3 levels is hardly an indication of -10% seasonality expectations. (He told us explicitly what his expectations were.) It shot up a crazy amount in Q4 (there was a lot of radio advertising, among other things). Q3 was substantially higher than Q2. So Q3 levels are not all that low. BTW, Intel's guidance midpoint is -5%, so that tells you something. Also, AMD is not as pure mass consumer as they were, so historical -10% for Q1 is probably not a good predictor, especially following a below-historically up Q4. I think you are misinterpreting Hector's remarks. They are not aggressively going for revenues in Flash. In fact, they guided flash revenues DOWN, and discussed cost-cutting measures. Finally, they were asked if they would be profitable in Q1. They said "yes".

To: kpf who wrote (149331)	1/28/2005 3:01:45 PM
From: Petz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Not true at all. Q1 seasonality for CPG averaged +2% relative to the prior Q4 for the years 1999 thru 2004. Here's the full data on AMD seasonality of CPG revenues that does not include the last two quarters - QUARTERLY change in sales (CPG group only, not flash) vs. prior quarter, using CPG sales from 1998Q4-2004Q2 (6 years) Sales % vs. Reporting Prior Quarter Standard Positive & Negative Quarter Average Geometric Deviation +/- --------- ---- ---- ----- -- Q1 +2% 0% 16% 3/3 Q2 -15% -16% 17% 1/5 Q3 +8% +3% 38% 3/3 Q4 +38% +35% 29% 5/1 The average column shows the average percentage gain or loss in sales vs. the prior quarter. So a -50% and a +50% would average to zero but the geometric average of -13% would be more accurate. --------------------------------------- copied from Message 20623920 Petz