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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dougSF30 who wrote (149343)	1/28/2005 6:40:56 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 275872

I know that AMD guided slightly down for CPG in Q1, but the only way that happens is if Athlon 64 revenues decline and Opteron server revenues increase only modestly in Q1. I don't see either as a realistic scenario, and hence, I can only conclude that Hector, having been burned on his Q4 guidance, is determined to err on the side of caution in Q1! The way I see it, Opteron server revenues thru 2004 increased by about $25M per quarter on average. I suspect that this average is about to get a significant boost in 2005 now that the glowing "Opteron track record" is in place, and now that SUNW and HP are significantly stepping up their Opteron product lineups. I'll be surprised if Q1 Opteron revenues don't increase sequentially by $35M to $50M and that Athlon 64 revenues, worst case, are flat! Just no way that Q1 CPG revenues are down if Athlon 64 revenues increase and if SUNW and HP have product lined up behind their February new product intro's! Even with a Q1 unit dropoff of 500k units, AMD still posts CPG revenues about $25M more than Q4! Let's just see what SUNW and HP bring to the market and how readily available the new products are and revisit our Q1 CPG estimates once this new data is in place!