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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (22388)	1/28/2005 5:41:56 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Update on the Greenspan Hedge Small specs are plowing into Eurodollar shorts just as the big specs appear to be taking profits. cftc.gov 3-MONTH EURODOLLARS - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 01/25/05 \| --------------------------------------------------------------\| NONREPORTABLE NON-COMMERCIAL \| COMMERCIAL \| TOTAL \| POSITIONS --------------------------\|-----------------\|-----------------\|----------------- LONG \| SHORT \|SPREADS \| LONG \| SHORT \| LONG \| SHORT \| LONG \| SHORT -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (CONTRACTS OF $1,000,000 FACE VALUE) OPEN INTEREST: 7,326,266 COMMITMENTS 631,152 934,779 762,344 5114933 4272606 6508429 5969729 817,837 1356537 CHANGES FROM 01/18/05 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 109,963) 61,586 -261,733 -123,939 -187,681 -101,683 -250,034 -487,355 359,997 597,318 PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS 8.6 12.8 10.4 69.8 58.3 88.8 81.5 11.2 18.5 NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 236) 36 65 69 119 125 199 218 Small Spec (non-reportable) short interest 1,356,537 Small spec traders added 597,318 short contracts just last week! The entire small spec net short position is now 538,700 contracts Quite frankly I find this amazing. In the meantime the big specs took off 200,147 contracts That leaves the big guns short 303,627 contracts. Just as the big boys are taking profits, small specs are playing "The Greenspan Hedge" to the max. Take a look at Friday’s GDP numbers. U.S. Q4 GDP up 3.1%, slowest in 7 quarters Friday, January 28, 2005 1:48:25 PM WASHINGTON (AFX) -- Growth in the U.S. economy slowed in the fourth quarter to a 3.1 percent annualized rate, the weakest growth in seven quarters, the Commerce Department said Friday Full report here: forexstreet.com IF we follow thru with some poor monthly jobs data that causes Greenspan to pause, there may be blood in the water on those small spec Eurodollar shorts. In my eyes, the “Greenspan Hedge” does not appear to be going all that well in spite of the hype. Those short 10-yr treasuries have lost money and those short Eurodollars have seen some brutal whipsaws. Others now appear to be attempting to cash in on “the big idea” just a little too late. Is there anyone who has not seen the famous Greenspan quote now? ”Rising interest rates have been advertised so long and in so many places that anyone who has not appropriately hedged his position by now, obviously, is desirous of losing money.” In the meantime….. Who was the “big winner” in “the greenspan hedge”? Answer: Those shorting 13 week treasuries! Does anyone recall seeing a recommendation to do that vs. shorting the long bond or 10-yr treasuries? Is there a single hand in the air? Mish

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (22388)	1/28/2005 6:10:44 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Heinz on the GDP and some miners Date: Fri Jan 28 2005 15:25 trotsky (Knapper) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "So is the latest GDP right, or wrong?" even worse, like all the preceding GDP data, it is meaningless crapola. over 80% of reported GDP 'growth' over the past few years has come from the information technology component, which is the by far most distorted via hedonic indexing. to illustrate how big a distortion it is: between 2000 and 2003, NOMINAL growth in IT spending was a NEGATVE 13% - i.e., in reality, it FELL by 13%. in the GDP accounts they reported 'real growth' of 58% instead. they transformed a worrisome decline into wild growth. but no-one ever spent or received any money in this 'growth' event. that is why the 'recovery' is jobless and the weakest since WW2 on every important measure ( esp. jobs and income growth ) - because there really isn't much of a recovery. it's a statistical mirage. Date: Fri Jan 28 2005 15:02 trotsky (McEwen) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "Callers to Goldcorp's Toronto head office who get put on hold are also treated to a recording of the merits of the Goldcorp-Wheaton union." sorrreee, here's on GG holder who doesn't buy this hard sell. for one thing, Glamis is 100% correct that a pure gold co. is superior to a gold-copper co. in terms of market valuation. for another, Telfer ( who GG holders would then be saddled with ) is a promoter, not a miner. Glamis management are miners. lastly, there's a very good reason why GLG is the gold stock with by far the highest valuation in the market. these guys are ARE REALLY focused on growth. i used to support McEwen's idea that there shouldn't be growth at any price just for the sake of playing in the consolidation game. why should GG purchase inferior assets, when it had one of the best gold mines in the world? but he really missed the boat with PDG, and the WHT offer strikes me as exactly the thing McEwen always said he wanted to avoid. also, even if one doesn't agree with any of this, the fact remains that the GLG offer means an immediate upfront premium for GG shareholders, while the WHT deal would likely result in a downward rerating of the new entity. clearly, this alone makes the GLG offer far superior, and imo it's superior on other counts as well.