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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (25504)	1/28/2005 9:16:56 PM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 110194

Hard data out of Vietnam is difficult to get. About all that is certain is that the situation is worse than official announcements of denials. The virus has clearly changed and has already become more efficient at human to human transmission. Here's a cluster page I started today. My guess is that in a several weeks it will look quite different recombinomics.com Tet is coming up on Feb 9 and there will be quite a bit of poultry consumed and quite a bit of travel (200,000 Vietnamese living abroad are expected to travel to Vietnam for the holiday). Last year Thailand was pretty close to Vietnam and officially there are just small outbreaks. However, I have heard reports indicating that there was more going on in Thailand than what's in official reports, and Thailand has tsunami hit areas and is adjacent to Indonesia, so the number of human cases could explode even without added efficiency. My guess is that an efficient H5N1 would be noticed around the world for several more months before seasonal factors would gain the upper hand. However, a short season this year would almost certainly lead to a major event next year. My guess is too many people have ignored the situation and taken the position "let me know when things are hopeless and I'll see what I can come up with". My guess is that the number of dead people will be considerably higher than the 60-70 reported for last season, and a pandemic this year is still a VERY real possibility (and that doesn't count issues in Korea, The Philipines, Sri Lanka, and who knows where else.